Aku baru saja membuka emailku dan hampir-hampir mirip kerjaan rutin seperti kerja dikantor dulu email-email tersebut harus aku cek dan buang sisanya aku archive. Dan ternyata kali ini aku lihat di spam box-ku lebih banyak dari biasanya...huhh...menyebalkan emang tapi ya itulah resiko pelacur email , ikut ini itu sekedar buat sniffing informasi tentang dunia forex.
Tapi kali ini aku tertegun oleh bahasa marketing yang mengesankan , 2000% sebulan dengan trading robotic...wowww.... dasar junk!!! Eiitt...tunggu dulu!! Segera pikiranku mencegat , apa dia penipu? Apa dia sekedar bluffing? Apa dia orang gila?? Apa dia emang benar-benar trader??
Hmmm...akupun mulai bertanya-tanya sebab aku melihat ada ribuan EA ( Expert Advisor ) dan ada sebagian memang mujarab dan dijual mahal bahkan berhasil dalam berbagai kompetisi forex championship.
Akupun mulai mengikuti jejak link yang diberikan... wahh , dia punya website dan forum tersendiri!! Wahh, sekejab pikiran negatifku hilang seketika.Gilaa...serius juga ini orang!! Sebab selama ini aku hanya menemukan mereka yang mengkais-kais uang receh dari hasil menipu orang lain. Sayang untuk masuk ke forum tersebut harus daftar dan bebayar!!!
Seketika itu juga aku close website tersebut...
Penasarankupun masih berlanjut dan dengan bantuan mbah google aku menelisik ke web-web yang menjajakan system tradingnya...ternyata banyak juga yang dimanage secara baik dan profesional bahkan digratiskan meski diwajibkan membayar ketika akan bergabung dalam forum mereka ( Sebenarnya sama aja sih berbayar juga tapi lebih halus...qqqqq).
Aku juga menemukan banyak juga di milis-milis dia memamerkan system tradingnya yang tujuan akhirnya adalah mengais rejeki dair jual system itu sendiri atau memanage account orang lain padahal dalam batinku bertanya kalo systemnya bagus kenapa dia masih butuh duit orang lain?? Apakah untuk mempercepat memperoleh penghasilan ( win-win solution ) ? Atau...dan atau yang lain???
Aku juga melihat mereka yang awalnya memberikan signal secara cuma-cuma sekarang sudah mulai minta bayaran... dan diharuskan mengocek duit lebih buat mereka jika ingin mempelajari system trading mereka.
Hmm...sebagian dengan niat tulus dan tanggung jawab dan sebagian lainnya pengemis!!!
Pertanyaanku adalah jika system itu bagus dan memberikan hasil kenapa tidak dibagikan secara gratis saja toh tidak merugi khan?? justru amal jariyah...toh yang kita buat pintar adalah bangsa kita sendiri!! Toh... meski mereka tahu juga belum tentu bisa menjalankan. Toh... mereka bukan market maker sehingga tidak mengganggu pola system itu sendiri.Toh... duit yang anda terima lebih besar dan jauh lebih besar daripada menjajakan system trading yang lebih terkesan mengemis.
Apakah anda baru menemukan system trading tersebut?
Apakah system trading tersebut hanyalah profit di back test?
Apakah...Upstt!!
Saya sedang bukan menentang penjaja system trading hanya saja jangan spam dan mengganggu orang lain dengan menipu.Saya akan menghargai mereka yang menjajakan system tradingnya secara profesional dan bertanggungjawab mengingat dalam menemukan system trading tersebut adalah butuh biaya , waktu , tenaga dan otak!!
Saya tahu itu , dan saya mendukung anda!!
Saya hanya sebal dengan mereka yang berkali-kali kasih menjajakan system tapi akhirnya mengganggu orang lain apalagi sampai menipu!!!
Saya salut dengan salah satu trader indonesia yang menjual systemnya tanpa menipu dan menggangu serta bertanggungjawab bahkan tanpa mengiklankan sama sekali!!!
Sabtu, 31 Mei 2008
Kisah penjaja system trading....
My favorite trading strategy part II
Trade adalah seni memainkan garis resistensi dan support tanpa harus bergantung dengan indikator... ( My favorite trading style series ). 
Strategy ini so far memberikan hasil yang bener-bener excellent dan aku berani jamin akan hal ini sebab so far aku menggunakan teknik ini hampir zero loss hanya saja signal entry-nya cenderung lama sebab kondisi ini jarang terjadi dan membutuhkan korelasi 3 pairs yang saling mendukung.
Hmm...kira kira gimana ya caranya???
Gini....
Eh , di bab korelasi pairs kemarin aku udah jelasin khan bahwa GU X UJ = GJ ??? Nah , teknik ini menggunakan mekanisme ini , mekanisme triangular pairs yaitu menggunakan hukum yang berlaku dipairs korelasi tersebut.
1. Jika GU naik dan UJ naik maka GJ naik
2. Jika GU turun dan UJ turun maka GJ turun
3. Jika GU naik tapi UJ turun maka GJ diam
4. Jika GU turun dan UJ naik maka GJ juga diam
Namun , untuk point 3 dan 4 jika salah satunya lebih besar pergerakannya maka GJ akan terpengaruh sejauh selisihnya yang ada sebab hukumnya ada GU x UJ = GJ.
Dan yang perlu diketahui adalah ; semua itu hukum pasti!!
Lalu bagaimana kita memanfaatkan hal itu ??
Aku memanfaatkan dengan menunggu momentum breakout!!
Yupp.... sederhana dan potensinya bisa dikatakan 90% , kenapa??
Ketika GU , UJ dan GJ dalam kondisi channel maka itu artinya ketiganya sedang menunggu dari konsolidasi market untuk terjadinya breakout sebagai penentu arah trend selanjutnya.
Dari ketiga pairs tersebut kita melihat ada 3 komponen yaitu GBP , USD dan JPY. Nah , disini kita mencari berita jam berapa dan news dari negara mana yang akan menjadi faktor penggerak breakout jika USD maka dapat dipastikan Breakout terjadi ketiga-tiganya pairs tersebut. Jika faktor penggeraknya adalah GBP atau JPY maka kemungkinan yang breakout adalah 2 pairs yaitu salah satu GU/UJ dan GJ. Namun bisa juga hanya salah satu dari GU/UJ sebab GJ terikat hukum pergerakan dari pergerakan GU/UJ lainnya yang berlawanan.
Tapi kadang mereka bergerak bersamaan kok.....
Dan ini baru 1 contoh triangular korelasi pairs , masih ada EU x UJ = EJ dan EU x UCH = EURUCHF dan masih banyak lagi sekitar 55 triangular korelasi pairs. Sedangkan kondisi breakout terjadi setiap hari...hayooo..udah paham belum??? duit nihh.... 
So awasi terus situasi ini dan maksimalkan profit anda , saya berani jamin!!!
Jangan berjudi di forex....
Dulu sewaktu pertama kali mendengar tentang forex , persepsi yang pertama kali muncul adalah JUDI!! Karena forex gak beda dengan main tebak-tebakan harga jika gak naik ya turun , kalo kita pasang naik maka ketika harga turun kita kalah sedangkan ketika harga naik maka kita menang.
Namun kemudian seorang teman memberikan link di internet tentang kaidah Islam terhadap dunia forex... hmm , aku mulai menelisik mencari benarkah forex bukan judi???
Setelah mempelajari lebih mendalam memang aku temukan forex lebih merupakan aspek perdagangannya yang lebih kuat namun memang banyak hal yang bisa menjebak ke perjudian ( setidaknya menurutku ) terutama yang lebih murni ke teknikal analis sebab akan lebih ke masalah tebak-tebakan dan inilah yang menyebabkan anasir judi muncul!!
Upstt....itu pendapat saya pribadi lho??
Apalagi kemudian hal ini semata-mata bekerja secara otomatsi dan robotic menggunakan EA.
Memang tidak mudah menganalisa forex berdasarkan analisa fundamental tapi setidaknya analisa ini menyertai trade yang lebih baik dan mengkikis kemungkinan unsur tebak-tebakan akan muncul. Ok , mungkin ada yang menanyakan bukankah meski menggunakan funda kita juga melakukan tebak-tebakan????
Hampir bisa dikatakan forex adalah tebak-tebakan dan hal ini tidak bedanya dengan orang berdagang yang melakukan pembelian dengan mengharap mampu menjual lebih tinggi dan inipun tebak-tebakan namun dibalik tebak-tebakan tersebut ada unsur analisa dan analisa inilah yang mengkikis unsur judi yang ada. Sebab perbedaannya adalah unsur analisa itu sendiri!!
Lalu bagaimana jika kita trade berdasarkan signal dari indikator yang kita ramu sendiri tanpa didasari analisa sama sekali atau tanpa dasar pemahaman kerja dari indikator itu sendiri??
Atau kita trade berdasarkan jam tertentu yang lebih cenderung ke habit ( probabilitas yang tinggi berdasarkan history) ?
Termasuk judikah itu bagi anda?
Saya pribadi menjaga diri saya dari hal yang menjadi unsur judi seperti itu dan , anda..... semua terserah anda!! Hanya saja yang perlu anda ketahui dengan meminimalisir unsur judi maka akan membuat trading anda lebih baik.
Overtrade... ( Penyakit tradingku dulu!! )
Trading adalah masalah konsistensi , sebab dunia trade adalah dunia probabilitas so jika kita sudah menemukan system trading yang teruji dan terbukti memiliki probilitas tinggi maka permasalahan selanjutnya adalah psikology trading kita dan salah satunya adalah konsistensi!!
Suatu saat , aku sangat yakin dengan system tradingku sehingga ketika harga berlawanan dengan op trade-ku maka aku yakin bahwa semua itu hanya slipage dan harga akan masuk ke dalam area tradingku so aku putuskan untuk op trade searah atau averaging.
Kemudian aku melihat pairs lain ternyata memiliki kesempatan yang sama untuk meraih kesempatan profit besar dari system tradingku tersebut!!Mulai deh ...tanganku gatal dan klik open trade lagi. Hmm...sekarang tinggal menunggu nih... menunggu profit!!
Wahh...harga meleset nih , aku averaging deh... hmm... kali ini aku serius mengamati chart dan iseng2 mengklik tab pairs yang lain. Wahh...ada lagi nih...!! Asyikk...buka lagi ahh... wuihhh...mantaps nih profit kali ini...heheheheee....
Tiba-tiba... market seakan-akan bermusuhan dengan open tradeku , harga entah kenapa sepertinya sebel ama aku...hihihi...mungkin gara-gara aku serakah nih buka banyak trade!! Upst,Gilaaa...kebanyakan open trade nih!!Wahh...untung aku tanggap!!!
Segera aku close semua trade-ku ,wuihh... loss banyak!!!
Sialll....kenapa aku lupa lagi???? Hampir aja aku kena Margin Call!! Wahh...kenapa mataku buta lagi ama profit!!!Kenapa tanganku gatal untuk mengklik open trade ya????
Pertanyaan demi pertanyaan muncul dalam batin , kenapa aku bisa jadi begini??? Kenapa aku melawan MM yang sudah aku tentukan sendiri??? Kenapa aku melawan rule-ku sendiri???
Kenapa aku harus kembali ke kesalahanku dulu...overtrade!!!
Busyettt...bodoh...guoblokkkk....aku terus mengumpat sambil mengamati transaksi recorku yang loss lumayan banyak!!! Sial benar hari ini....
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Aku gak tau trader-trader mengalami hal seperti ini atau tidak , tapi yang pasti ini penyakit lamaku dan kadang sekarangpun setelah berjalan lama aku masih terpengaruh!!!
Trading memang tidak semudah seperti kelihatannya....
Jumat, 30 Mei 2008
Lucky Beginner....
Dulu sewaktu aku mengenal forex pertama kali.... hampir 70% tradeku didemo pasti menang dengan hanya mengandalkan MA 20 , 100 dan 200. Harga seakan akan mengikuti kehendakku dan menggiring otakku agar menyakini diri bahwa aku akan segera kaya!!! 
Tidak hanya hati , kepalakupun ikutan panas. Pikiran langsung menuju ke jumlah tabunganku sambil berhitung bahwa nilainya akan berlipat-lipat dalam waktu dekat...hmm , saat itu adalah saat saat aku mengalami kebutaan sementara oleh hasil demo tradingku yang mengesankan itu.
Setelah sedikit mencari dan referensi dari teman maka aku tentukan brokerku dan ke-esokan harinya siap2 aku beli ecurrency dan depo ke broker pilihan tersebut. Namun tiba-tiba ada telpon dari teman yang membutuhkan bantan untuk melunasi biaya pengobatan anaknya yang terkena demam berdarah. Huhh..., aku berada di dilema dan akhirnya aku putuskan memberikan pinjaman ke teman tersebut dan sisanya baru aku depo sebab aku pernah berhutang budi dengan beliau.
Keesokan hari , aku mulai trading real dengan kepercayaan yang tinggi. Keuntungan demi keuntungan aku raih yang semakin membuatku tambah percaya diri sampai-sampai aku lupa waktu dari pagi sampai maghrib mempelototin chart. Tiba US open pasar bergerak tidak teratur dan perkiraanku mulai meleset namun dengan didasari kepercayaan diri bahwa harga akan kembali sesuai perkiraanku maka aku kembali membuka trade searah dengan perkiraan awalku. 
Perlahan tapi pasti... harga melenceng dari skenarioku , kegundahan hati semakin besar dan kepala semakin tegang. Syetaaann...nih !! Kepercayaan diriku membutakanku untuk tidak segera mengclose trade tersebut.Aku tidak melihat free margin , aku tidak melihat kapan aku harus mengambil keputusan , aku tidak melihat bahwa saat ini trend berlawanan arah dengan skenarioku. Aku hanya melihat bahwa nanti trend akan kembali sesuai skenarioku!! 
Perlahan tapi pasti , free margin semakin berkurang hingga data tradeku di chart berwarna merah kemudian kuning dan kemudian close.MARGIN CALL!!! Waks , duongkol buanget...
barulah muncul pertanyaan dalam batinku...kenapa tadi gak aku close? Kenapa aku diam saja? Kenapa aku tadi malah buka lagi? Kenapa...dan kenapa...itu terus terngiang dikepalaku!!!
Aku terdiam dan lesu...dalam hati aku mengumpat : busyet, baru sekali main udah ketendang!!
Setelah terdiam , pikiranku mulai bergerak lagi...hmm , aku harus depo lagi nih!! hmm , tadi aku salah disini dan disini.... wahh, untung duitku gak semuanya aku masukin!!! wah , untung duitku dipinjam!! Akhirnya timbul semangat lagi dan berjanji akan masuk ke market lagi dan kali ini aku yakin bahwa aku sudah tahu kesalahanku!!
TAPI TERNYATA , DIBALIK ITU DENDAM MENYERTAI!!
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Itu merupakan kisah tragis Lucky beginner dan Margin Call-ku , dan setelah itupun aku masih rutin langganan MC ... dengan berbeda bentuk alasan saja!!
Mungkin hal ini merupakan cerita wajib seorang trader dan ada kepercayaan bahwa mustahil seseorang itu tidak mengalami margin call selama dia belajar jadi trader.Permasalahannya adalah kita membuat MC itu di real acc atau demo acc semua itu terserah anda namun sejauh ini saya temui hampir semua trader mengalami MC tidak hanya di demo acc , kenapa??? Karena mereka gak tahan untuk segera main real so try it for 2 years in demo or you'll lost your money....
Selasa, 27 Mei 2008
Trend Changes and Market Entries , According to W. D. Gann ...
By: Terry Ashman
W.D Gann is considered a master trader. Many of his techniques are esoteric but a number of gems are to be found in his courses and books. Here we will look at a number of Gann's rules for determining a trend change, and market entry rules that Gann derives from these rules.
ll charts created with HotTrader Software.
We are going to start with Gann's bear market "Short" entries first. These principles work with many markets including stocks and commodities, but we will use stocks in these illustrations.
"Going from a Bull to Bear market" - Gann says ...
In "How to Make Profits in Commodities", W.D Gann says ...
"SECONDARY RALLY OR LOWER TOP. After a prolonged advance when wheat or any commodity reached final high and the Bull campaign is over, there is usually a short severe decline, lasting anywhere from 1 to 2 and possibly 3 weeks or months. After the first sharp decline, the market may remain in a narrow trading range for 10 days or 2 or 3 weeks, in some cases even longer."
"After that, there is a SECONDARY RALLY, sometimes getting up near the OLD TOP and sometimes not reaching it by many points. Going over past records you will find that a market seldom fails to have this SECONDARY RALLY. When this SECONDARY RALLY comes, especially after the TREND has TURNED DOWN, it is the safest rally on which to SELL SHORT, because the decline is faster from that time on and rallies smaller."
Below is an example of this on ANZ Weekly chart. Note that this picture exactly fits Gann's description - a break of the uptrend, then a large secondary rally followed by a reasonably fast bear market decline with smaller rallies. (In order to effectively sell short ANZ, you would have to have bought put options.)
A further point that Gann raises is this ... "Sell after the first decline exceeds the greatest reaction in the preceding Bull Campaign or the last reaction before the final top" (W.D.Gann Stock Market Course).
For an explanation of this,
refer to the chart and commentary below ...
The size of reactions 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are marked with white lines. Reactions 1 to 4 occurred during the bull market phase. Reaction 5 is the first decline that exceeds the greatest reaction in the preceding bull campaign AND Reaction 5 exceeds the last big reaction before the final top (reaction 4) AND Reaction 5 breaks the long term uptrend. (We've used a normal trend line to mark this, not the break of a swing point. This is not what Gann taught but it is an alternative method that can be used when you become skilled at recognising the trend channel.)
Places to Sell ...
Gann says that the safest place to sell is near, that is, just after, the top of the secondary rally - assuming you can pick this- In the W.D.Gann Stock Market Course, Gann Writes ... ".SAFEST SELLING POINT
Sell on a secondary rally after a stock has broken the previous bottoms of several weeks (Sell Point 2 just after "Top of Secondary Rally" in the picture above) or has broken the bottom of the last reaction, turning trend down. (Sell Point 1) This secondary rally nearly always comes after the first sharp decline in the first section of a Bear Campaign."
and ...
"Sell after the first decline exceeds the greatest reaction in the preceding Bull Campaign or the last reaction before the final top." (Sell Point 1).
Important Points ...
(1) If you are initiating new positions, that is, you are selling short or buying put options, you must first determine your risk before entering the trade. Sell Point 1 may require a stop above swing point 5. This stop is a fair distance away in this example and may be too big for your account size or may cause a severe reduction in value of a put option if the market went this far against it. If this is the case you do not take that trade.
(2) Sell Point 1 in this case could be used for exiting a long position, but not initiating a new short position if the risk was too great, considering where you would put your stop - above point 5 top. In other examples Sell Point 1 can be good for initiating a short position.
(3) Gann considers Sell Point 2 to be the safest, with a stop above the top of the secondary rally, although this sell point can be difficult to define and is actually not used in his standard swing trading method. There are methods which can be used to define it some of the time, which we will look at in the screen movies.
(4) Sell point 3 is used in Gann's swing chart trading method and can be used subject to you being able to define a point where you would exit the trade with a stop if the trade goes against you. Gann says put a stop above the secondary rally.
Further example ...Study this carefully ..Acacia Resources Weekly with 2 Bar Hotswing..
Explanation ...The market falls, going lower than swing bottom 3, and the fall from swing top 4 to swing bottom 5 is larger than the range from swing top 2 to swing bottom 3, which is the last and largest reaction of the preceding bull campaign. The fall below swing bottom 3 "officially" turns the trend down based on Gann's rules so we are now looking for the "seconadary rally". Market does a "Secondary Rally" making swing top 6. which is quite a bit lower than swing top 4. Gann says that the secondary rally sometimes gets up near the old top (4) and sometimes does not reach it by many points. In this case it didn't reach it by many points indicating potential weakness, which was bourne out by the subsequent bear market. Gann's rules ...
Entry Point 1 - Sell if long and sell short as market goes under swing bottom 3 subject to the risk being acceptable if you put you stop above swing top 4.
Entry Point 2 - Sell Short as top of secondary rally turns down (swing top 6). Swing top 6 is a bit above swing bottom 3 (remember "Support and Resistance in Trends").
Entry Point 3 - Sell short as the market goes below swing bottom 5, subject to you being able to define a suitable stop point - a tick or two above swing top 6.
Here is what it looks like on a swing chart ...Carefully go through the preceding explanation and relate it to the swing chart.
Places to Buy ...
On page 35 of the W.D.Gann Stock Market Course, Gann says ...
"SAFEST BUYING POINT Buy on a secondary reaction after a stock has crossed (above) previous weekly tops and the advance exceeded the greatest rally on the way down from the top."
Example.
Explanation ...
Swing tops 4, 6 and 8 are bear market tops because they are lower than previous swing tops. Market then goes above swing top 8, falls back making swing top 10, rises to make swing bottom 11. Swing top 10 is the "Rally" and swing bottom 11 is the secondary reaction.
The advance from bottom 9 to top 10 exceeded the size of rallies 3 to 4, 5 to 6, and 7 to 8. (I haven't counted 1 to 2).
Entry Point 1 - Buy as market goes above swing top 8, stop under swing bottom 9.
Entry Point 2 - Buy near the bottom of the secondary reaction (11) if you could pick it - it's around the price of top 8 in this example - (remember "Support and Resistance in Trends"). Entry Point 3 - Buy as the market goes above swing top 10 with a stop under swing bottom 11. That is, you buy on stop a tick or two above swing top 10 with a sell stop a tick or two below swing bottom 11. This would actually have been a good buy because a buy just above the top of swing top 10 with a sell stop under swing bottom 11 would have presented little risk because swing bottom 11 is close to swing top 10.
Here is what it looks like on a swing chart .Entry Point 3 with its stop, is marked.
Terry Ashman
HotTrader, Australia
source : http://www.afsd.com.au/
Time , Turns Trend ...
By: Solomon Thallon
"TIME is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient TIME has expired does any big move start up or down. When TIME is up, price movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down."
W.D Gann
I know about the use of equal ranges when it comes to comparing price ranges with previous price ranges. I have learned about this equal range business from many traders. We can all witness it from time to time. And yes, it does seem to be when I am observing the markets movements. Unfortunately I don't know which range is going to make it to the 100% level of the previous range. The market might make it half way, or it might even trade right through the 100% level like a hot knife through butter, easily. However, there some good uses for the study of price ranges, in particular the retracement levels. I am sure we all love a 50% retracement to be at the beginning of our trend.
What I have been noticing lately, well, actually I noticed this a long time ago but haven't looked at it as seriously as I am now, is the ranges of TIME that the market trades in. Let's forget about price for a while and look at the ranges in time that are clear and evident in the market. Let's look at the Australian SPI for example.
You will discover in the following TIME chart that the high of 3373 made on the 10th of July is in fact when the TIME started to turn the trend. Compare this TIME chart with the PRICE chart and you will see two completely different pictures.
In the TIME chart the high of 3376 made on the 3rd of October was in fact a DOUBLE TOP in TIME with the 3373 high made on the 10th of July. You will also see that the high of 3414 made on the 7th of November is in fact a LOWER TOP in TIME to that of the 3376 and 3373 highs.
TIME CHART
PRICE CHART
Happy trading,
Solomon ThallonHotTrader, Australia
source : http://www.afsd.com.au/
Knowing Which Time Periods To Trade ...
By: Solomon Thallon
You should always figure the time from any top or high level to the next top or high point. Also figure the time from any low level to the next low level. Then figure the time from a low level to a high level and the time from the last high level down to the low level.By doing this, you will know when time periods balance or come out about the same as a previous move. This is balancing of time. By knowing these dates and prices, it will help you to determine the duration of the next move. The longer the period of time that elapses before a previous high level is crossed or a previous low level is broken, the greater the advance or decline which follows.
PRICE SWINGS OVERBALANCED
When prices have advanced for a considerable period of time and have made several reverse swings, the first time a reverse swing or reaction exceeds the previous downswing, it is an indication that the trend is changing. But never consider that the trend has definitely changed until the time period has overbalanced. Example: If prices have been advancing for a considerable time and there have been several reactions running 5 to 7 days, then a downswing starts and runs more than 7 days, it is an indication that the trend is changing, at least temporarily. If the price reaction had also overbalanced, then it would be a definite indication of a change in trend, either minor or major.
In a declining market, keep account of all the rallies and how many cents the market has rallied from time to time and also record the time period of each rally; then when the low is reached and the advance exceeds the previous rallies in a bear Bear Market, it is an indication that both price and time are overbalanced and the trend is changing.
Remember that all rules work best when markets are very active and near extreme high or extreme low levels. Changes in trend which occur between extreme high or low do not mean as much as a reversal when prices are near extreme high or low and are very active.
Happy trading,
Solomon ThallonHotTrader, Australia
source : http://www.afsd.com.au/
A Change in Trend is a Traders Best Friend ...
By: Solomon Thallon
You've all heard the cliches, "trade with the trend", or, "the trend is your friend". Sometimes a lot easier said than done. Was there ever a time that all you have ever wanted to know was "what is the trend?"
There are plenty of technical indicators that you can overlay onto your charts, be it your bar charts, candlesticks, you name it, so many in fact I won't even start trying to name them all. However, essentially what we are looking for is a trade. And if we are told to trade with the trend then we need to find the trend so as to trade with it. OK. But what trend are we looking for? Are we looking for the trend of your friend? Or perhaps the trend of the brokers tips that are coming in through on the fax? Well, really, what we should be looking for is the Trend of PRICE. Have you read the William Gann book "How to Make Profits in Commodities"? In this book Gann tells us "Price tells the Trend".
William Gann was a swing trader through and through. "the study of swings in active stocks will convince a (trader) that far greater profits can be made in swing trading than in any other way of trading". "…swing trading…", mmm. "…far greater profits than in other way of trading…", I'd like to see that.
Have a look at this chart of MIM.
Insert MIM chart here.
Note the Triple Bottom at the end of the bear campaign. These Triple Bottoms are a good indicator of a change in trend. Here's what Gann had to say about these Triple Bottoms. "A Triple Bottom is the most important…you will find that the greatest advances start form a Triple Bottom…" The longer the time that occurs between these bottoms indicate a greater importance of the campaign that lies ahead.
The idea here, looking at the MIM chart, is to confirm a change in trend from the bear campaign to the bull campaign as close to the bottom, or Triple Bottom, as possible. Let's study the chart closely. You will see that after the third bottom of the Triple Bottom the swing chart makes a higher swing top, (note *1). This is your first indication that the trend is turning. Now, "…the safest buying point is on a secondary reaction…" Gann. A secondary reaction is, in this case, a higher bottom to the Triple Bottom, (note*2).
What's important to remember is that the earlier you get onto the swing the more you'll make and the less you'll risk. HotTrader clearly defines these entry points. I have noticed that two days after beginning to write this article MIM has gone on to continue its uptrend. MIM has now broken above its previous weekly swing tops, which is a good sign.
Happy trading,
Solomon Thallon
HotTrader, Australia
source : http://www.afsd.com.au
Finding the Time to Trade ...
By: Solomon Thallon
The element of Time in trading has been, and continues to be, a leading subject for most traders to study throughout their trading career. Gann's secret Time Factor has sent a lot of traders on a 'wild goose chase' through time. Expansions and contractions of Time Ranges have also sent a few traders into a studying frenzy using all sorts of Time analysis tools.
The Fibonacci Arc, Gann's Square of 9 and for some very game traders, the timing of the movements of planets as they orbit the Sun.
And then there is the problem of choosing a Time Frame to trade; intraday, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly charts? What Time do you want to trade? The SPI opens in Sydney at 9:50am, and a few minutes later the Nikkei opens for trading in Singapore. The Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are other exchanges that are open during the Australian trading day. If you are fortunate enough to make it to the trading screen during your working day, you will find plenty of trades available if you have selected an intraday Time Frame. For those that can't make it to the screen through the day, there is the German DAX that opens at around 4:30 in the afternoon, and many other tradable instruments available on European exchanges. For late night traders there are the US markets. So really, if you want to trade 24 hrs a day, the global markets can facilitate this.
Most traders are not intraday traders. Here in Australia, Intraday traders represent as few as 1 or 2% of all traders. Most of Australia's traders are trading using daily charts as their minor time frame to determine the trend. That's a good start, as long as we know that the trend grows from daily to weekly and so on.
The difference between an intraday trader and a daily trader is Time; the length of time that a trader spends in a trade. Apart from some obvious money management differences, such as stop losses and lot sizes, the short- term trader and long-term trader have much in common. But length of time in a trade is a very significant thing. It may seem easier to make a trading decision and act on it once a week as opposed to 4 or five times a day. Indeed many intraday traders describe the use of daily charts as a form of retirement in comparison with active intraday trading.
Some long-term traders may only trade once a month to get on to a big move. But when they do trade they trade intraday 4 or 5 times in a day. This way they are put into a trade that may last days or weeks. Depending on the number of markets you choose to look at this way, intraday trading can become a full time job.
Most traders have software that draws the price movement of the markets that the trader is watching. However, I still know of traders that are spending all their time drawing charts, leaving very little or no time at all to develop their trading skill. These chartists become expert market analysts, leaving the trading to those with the facility to study the charts and make trading decisions daily. With a simple spreadsheet these traders can manage their time and trades with more than adequate efficiently.
Trading is an activity that, once started, cannot be left alone. Whether you pay a broker to manage your stops or whether you are managing your own trades, the market is active all day everyday. So, unless you are trading for long term-profits, the job of trading is unlikely to afford you the freedom that you might expect as its result. All of these things take a little time to work out. Most aspects of trading are exciting enough in the beginning to warrant 100% time commitment. It isn't until you need to take a break that the real responsibilities of the job at hand become apparent. It is important not to be in a rush, to take your time and enjoy the journey. Study Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot, even the planets, whatever intrigues you. While you may come to enjoy a new lifestyle, it will be the hard work and expert analysis that demands much of your time and energy and that will bring you your rewards.
Happy trading,
Solomon Thallon
HotTrader, Australia
source : http://www.afsd.com.au
Senin, 26 Mei 2008
HOW TO TRADE THE SQUARE OF NINE WITH A CALCULATOR AND A PENCIL
Any mention of WD Gann is usually preceded or followed with 'legendary trader.' I suppose that's appropriate because no other stock or commodities trader, R.N. Elliott excepted, has achieved near cult status. The biggest difference between Gann and Elliott is that the latter published his work and freely divulged his "secrets." $5,000 courses notwithstanding, Gann never did. In a 1922 interview when WD Gann was asked to reveal the cause behind his incredibly accurate time factor, he responded, "That is my secret and too valuable to be spread broadcast. Besides, the public is not yet ready for it."
WD Gann was many things. Above all he was a prolific researcher and writer. Unfortunately much of what Gann wrote, as well as much of what has been written about him, is so mystifying, complicated, and convoluted that most Gann students give up disappointed in spirit and lighter in the wallet. I have paid more for one Gann book than I did for my first car, and the car was a lot more useful! Most of what's available on the Gann Wheel and the Square of Nine is no exception.
WD Gann is reported to have carried two pieces of paper onto the stock and commodities trading floor. A 9x9 table of the numerals 1-81, and a table of numerals that has come to be known as the Gann Wheel. He specially configured for the day's activities. WD Gann sold a variety of trading courses for more than 50 years and so far as we know not one of them ever explained in detail what he did with that 9x9 table or with that other table of numerals, or anything else related to the Square of Nine. Maybe he thought nobody would believe him.
We traveled the usual hyper expensive Gann book route and departed disappointed in spirit and lighter in the wallet but captivated with Gann's comments like " When price and time square change is inevitable " - captivated enough to gather all the fragments of information we could find in WD Gann's work and in others that had had written about the Square of Nine and the Gann Wheel and how it could be applied to stock, options and forex trading. I do not recall a Eureka Moment but at some point it all came together after we were introduced to an uncomplicated formula that converted price and time to degrees of a circle. Out went the Gann Wheel, the overlays, and table size charts for a cheap calculator and a pencil. We found some Square of Nine magic and never looked back! It is a good feeling when people tell us they got more out of our little ebook than the stuff they spent literally thousands of dollars on.
It's a difficult concept to get your mind around but price and time are not only related, they are interchangeable. With our ebook you can take a price, a range, the number of trading days, or the number of calendar days and figure out exactly when each or all of them will square at any time in the future. The formulae for converting price and time to degrees of a circle, and for finding all the future prices and times when a pivot high or pivot low will square on the Square of Nine, and the method for constructing Square of Nine Roadmap charts from a plain price chart are a solid foundation for making the Square of Nine your own without ever touching a paper Gann Wheel. Learning through the examples in the ebook the five ways that the markets square price and time can provide you with knowledge that may not be obtainable by any other means.
The purpose of this work is to explain concisely and in detail simple mathematical and graphical techniques for applying WD Gann's Square of Nine to real world stock, stock option, and forex trading situations. The Square of Nine is not your usual method of technical analysis. It's like nothing you've ever seen. A completely unrelated technique that either confirms or contradicts your usual methods can be invaluable when making decisions. The Square of Nine is not the magic bullet, although it can seem like it at times. It is about as objective as it gets. Either price and time square or they don't.
The ability to draw Roadmap charts in seconds after a change in trend and to use a mathematical formula to check for squaring may even make this modern implementation of the Square of Nine better than what Gann himself had. The recent squaring of price and time in the Bonds is powerful proof of the effectiveness of this magical tool. If we followed Bonds closely we would have known on March 23 that price and time would square on June 3, although we would not have have know at that time that June 3 would be the swing high.
There is nothing else to buy. You do not need an expensive Gann Wheel, or overlays, or compasses or anything else that gets sold in the usual Gann course. We show you step-by-step exactly how to determine with a simple mathematical formula when price and time square for any ticker in any time frame. Unless you're really good with square roots you will need a cheap calculator. To accelerate your learning speed we are making a beta version of the training software to draw the Roadmap Charts available at no cost to current and past purchasers of this ebook.
Using the Look-Ahead feature of this mathematical application of the Square of Nine, you could have determined to watch for a change in Crude's bullish trend less than 1 point from a major high.
So far as we know the totality of information in this ebook is not available from any other single source at any price. Included as appendices are excerpts from WD Gann's original works: "Why Geometrical Angles Work on Stocks," "The Master Mathematical Price, Time and Trend Calculator" and others.
TRADINGFIVES
June 2, 2003
SQUARE OF NINE PRINCIPLES
THE GANN WHEEL IS A SQUARE ROOT CALCULATOR
The Gann Wheel, what most people think of as the Square of Nine, is sometimes called a "Square Root Calculator" or a device that "Squares the Circle." This simple illustration may explain how and why these terms came about. You probably recognize that the illustration is just the first few rings of a Gann Wheel with the numeral "1" at the center.
| 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| 30 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 38 |
| 29 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 39 |
| 28 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 40 |
| 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 41 |
| 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 42 |
| 49 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 |
In Square of Nine parlance we say things like 19 is 90 degrees from 15. That makes sense only if you can visualize that this rectangular table of numbers is enclosed in a circle (or series of circles) of 360 degrees. In this case, the number 19 is 1/4 the way around the circle from the number 15, or 90 degrees in circumference from 15. The number 34 is directly above the number 15 and positioned one circumference or ring outside the circle that contains the number 15. In the same sense that we can say that 19 is 90 degrees from 15, we can say that 34 is 360 degrees from 15, or one complete rotation of the circle from 15. So, that explains where squaring the circle comes from. A more accurate expression would be that we're circling the square but that never did catch on.
HOW TO ROTATE AROUND THE GANN WHEEL
Here's where it gets fun. The square root of 15 is 3.87. Add two to the square root of 15 and we get 5.87. Square 5.87 and we get 34.49 which rounds to 34. Now we know that adding two to the square root of a number and squaring that sum is the same thing as a 360 degree rotation up on the Gann Wheel. If "2" represents a 360 degree rotation then "1" represents a 180 degree rotation, "0.5" a 90 degree rotation, and so on. W.D. Gann tells us that 90 degrees in very important in the stock market. What he's really saying is that adding and subtracting .5 (and exact multiples or proportions of .5) to the square root of a stock price and then squaring the result is very important! We acknowledge that there is is another school of Gann thought that will say that Gann's reference to 90 degrees relates to the movement of celestial bodies. We've looked into that and they may be right, but for our purposes we've also learned that these schools of thought can peacefully exist alongside each other without contradiction. A very few people have been using some variation of the Gann Wheel for about 100 years now. In his famous interview given to Richard D. Wyckoff in 1909, W.D. Gann attributed market movements to some undefined "law of vibration." People can disagree about what W.D. Gann meant by that but we, at least, are fairly certain he was talking about the principles underlying the Square of Nine.WHAT IS SO SPECIAL ABOUT THE SQUARE OF NINE ?
The Square of Nine is unique because unlike every other method of tecnhical analysis, the Square of Nine is totally indifferent to whether the input variable is a price, a range of prices, or a number of trading days or calendar days. They are all the same and completely interchangeable. Say what? That can be a little hard to get your brain around after spending years studying chart patterns, exotic moving averages, and oscillators. That's the beauty of it. Price and time become interchangeable by converting them to degrees of a circle. Squares and square roots are part of that process. Once price and time are conceptualized only as degrees of concentric circles we could care less about their actual magnitude. At that point we care only about their orbital relationship. Are they in opposition, conjunction or square? You will find that almost every significant high or low pivot point is indeed in opposition, conjunction or square to a previous price, range or time. You can see a recent example of price-to-price relationships in our Square Root Theory article. Other possible relationships are price-to-time, range-to-price, time-to-range, and so on.Is this what W.D. Gann meant in that Wyckoff interview when he said "just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises." One other very special aspect of the Square of Nine is that the more you study the more you learn how much you don't know!
ROADMAP CHARTS USE SQUARE OF NINE PRINCIPLES
Roadmap Charts are a simple and elegant construct that use square roots to convert price and time into channels and a mathematically precise grid that can contain a trend for days, weeks, months or even years. Although the channels look like conventional trend lines consider that trend lines are drawn after-the-fact to delineate existing data points. Roadmap channels are fixed and can be drawn immediately, within seconds in the case of intraday data, after the completion of a single price bar. That this phenomenon occurs more often than not is fairly convincing evidence that even such complex events as hugely participated auctions may be explainable by a few simple rules.We often say that Roadmap Charts self-define the trend because if the selected bar is indeed a trend-changing pivot point the channels will contain all (or nearly all) future price movement in that time frame for the life of the trend. Roadmap Charts can be constructed for any ticker in any time frame. The principles of construction remain the same although the quirkiness of certain pricing data, such as low-price stocks, decimal currencies, and bonds in 32nds, can present some scaling challenges. Our book Trading the Square of Nine with a Pencil and a Calculator goes well beyond Roadmap Charts and tells you how to easily convert price and time into degrees of a circle, and the five different ways to square price and time for any ticker in any time frame. Review the Roadmap Charts. You have enough information to understand what we mean by "45 degree grid" because all our S&P charts are drawn in multiples or proportions of 90 degrees. You can use other grid sizes as in this example but we believe that consistency pays off once you become comfortable with the natural rhythm of a particular ticker. A perfect complement to the Square of Nine techniques we describe in our book is the displaced moving average technique for projecting price and time that we tell you about in our book J.M. Hurst Cycle Trading Without the Rocket Math.
source : http://www.tradingfives.com
Gann...part 6 ( Gann articles )
Gann and Astrology
According to Robert W. Colby, in The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, page 108, Gann "intensely applied astrology to market timing." At one point, Gann studied Indian sidereal astrology in India. In fact, the famous Gann wheel was first used by tea merchants in seventeenth century India. For further reading on the subject of the connection between Gann and Astrology see:
- How to Win as a Stock Market Speculator, by Alexander Davidson, page 253-255.
- The life and work of W.D.Gann, by Solomon Thallon, page 1.
- The Fated Sky, Astrology in History, Benson Bobrick, page 308.
- Pattern, Price & Time: Using Gann Theory in Trading Systems, by James A. Hyerczyk, page 19.
- The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, by Robert W. Colby, page 108.
- New Thinking in Technical Analysis: Trading Models from the Masters, by Rick Bensignor, page 14.
- Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting, by Nicholas Rescher, page 23.
- The Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options and Futures, by William F. Eng, page 345, 371.
Books and Articles by W D Gann
- Tunnel Thru The Air, or looking back from 1940
- Truth of The Stock Tape
- Wall Street Stock Selector
- How to Make Profts Trading in Commodities
- 45 Years in Wall Street
- Magic Word
- How to Make Profits Trading In Puts And Calls (an early text on trading options)
- Face Facts America
sumber :wikipedia.org
Gann... part 5 ( history of gann )
William Delbert Gann historikal
Lahir di sebuah pertanian , 7 mil dari
Gann hidup di rumah yang sangat kecil dan serba kekurangan , bahkan untuk mengeyam pendidikan dia harus berjalan kaki 7 mil menuju
Dan karena bekerja di pertanian lebih penting bagi keluarganya maka dia tidak pernah menamatkan sekolahnya sampai beberapa tahun kemudian akhirnya dia mendapat kesempatan bekerja di sebuah pialang/brokerage di Texarkana dan mencoba sekolah bisnis di malam harinya.
Bekerja di pialang utama Wall Street, W.D. membuat perubahan demi perubahan dalam kehidupannya yang menjadi lebih baik. Setelah gagal dengan pernikahannya maka pada tahun 1908 pada saat dia berumur 30 tahun dia menikahi gadis pujaannya yang baru berumur 19 tahun Sarah Hannify. Mereka memiliki 2 anak –Velma , lahir tahun 1909 dan John, 1916.
Selama perang dunia pertama keluarganya pindah dari
Tahun 1919 ketika berumur 41, W. D. Gann berhenti dari pekerjaannya dan mencoba merintis bisnisnya sendiri. Dia memulai dengan meluncurkan
Sebagai perintis dalam pembaca grafik/chart, catatannya banyak dijadikan acuan oleh beberapa buku best seller.Sebagai seorang yang individualis dan pekerja keras yang ambisius, W.D. menerbitkan sendiri Truth melalui perusahaan penerbitan Financial Guardian miliknya yang baru. Dia tulis sendiri iklannya hingga bernegoisasi dengan pemilik toko buku. 'Truth sangat di puji oleh The Wall Street Journal dan terjual banyak selama beberapa tahun. Beberapa beranggapan bahwa itu adalah masterpiecenya. Sebagai usaha pertama hal ini merupakan prestasi yang sangat signifikan baginya.
Dia meramalkan kondisi market selama 20 tahun dan tercatat 85% akurat. Tapi dia tidak membatasi ramalannya terhadap harga. Dilaporkan secara umum bahwa dia juga meramalkan pemilihan presiden
The market pada tahun 1920-an sepertinya akan bertentangan dengan hukum gravitasi tapi W.D. Gann tidak berpikir itu akan terjadi selamanya. Dalam prediksinya pada tahun 1929, dia meramalkan market akan menembus highs baru sampai awal April, kemudian mengalami penurunan tajam dan kemudian mulai lagi dengan highs baru sampai 3 September . Itu akan menjadi top dan setelah itu akan menjadi market crash terbesar dalam sejarah. Kita semua ketahui bahwa semua itu terjadi.
W. D. Gann menjadi makmur selama Depression, dimana dia meramalkan akan berakhir hingga 1932. Dia memperoleh harga yang bagus di beberapa commodities exchanges, dia bertransaksi dengan accountnya sendiri, tertulis di Wall Street Stock Selector pada tahun 1930 dan New Stock Trend Detector pada tahun 1936. Dia melanjutkan membuat ramalan yang akurasinya tinggi dan mengembangkan sebuah ketertarikan baru dalam dunia investasi di
He juga menjadi seorang penerbang. Dia membeli pesawat pada tahun 1932 dia bisa terbang mengelilingi banyak tempat untuk observasi untuk digunakan prediksinya. Dia memperkerjakan Elinor Smith, seorang aviator berumur 21 tahun untuk terbang bersamanya.
John , anak W. D. Gann' juga masuk ke bisnis securitas pada tahun 1936 ketika berumur 21 tahun. Setahun kemudian dia bekerja dengan ayahnya sampai tahun 1941. Gann terus menjalankan bisnisnya di
John bekerja di bisnis W. D. Gann' di
Tahun-tahun setelah perang membuat langkah bisnis Gann semakin mudah setelah menerbitkan 45 Years in Wall Street pada tahun 1949. Dia menjual bisnisnya ke Joseph Lederer, seorang sahabat sesama murid dari market. Diwaktu yang sama dia juga menjual semua hak atas buku-bukunya kepada Edward Lambert. Setelah itu dia terus melanjutkan belajar , mengajar dan bertrading. Dia menjadi anggota terhormat dari the International Mark Twain Society pada tahun 1950.
Pada tahun 1954 , dia terken serangan jantung. Setahun kemudian berkembang ke kangker lambung dan operasi dokter gagal untuk menyembuhkannya .W. D. Gann meninggal bulan Juni tahun 1955 ketika umur 77tahun. Dia dikebumikan disebelah istri keduanya di perkuburan Green-Wood di Brooklyn dengan lokasi yang langsung menghadap Wall Street .
Pertama , sebagai sebuah pernyataan atas mimpi anak manusia. William Delbert Gann of
Kedua , hasil dari kerja keras. W. D. Gann datang paling awal dan pulang paling akhri dan mendedikasikan bisnisnya dengan sepenuh hati.Meski dia telah mencapai semua impiannya dia tetap belajar dan belajar.
Ketiga, pemikiran moderat mungkin akan memberikan perubahan. W.D. secara intelektual tertarik dengan status kependidikan diluar kebiasaan. Dia tidak takut terhadap ide-ide kolot , baik di dunia keuangan maupun are lainnya dalam kehidupannya. Dia tidak selalu benar tetapi dia terus berani mengejar ide-ide yang lebih bagus.
Keempat, Pertolongan iman. W. D. Gann sangat menganjurkan sisi keimanannya sebagai manusia dan tertulis jelas di buku terakhirnya The Magic Word , diterbitkan tahun 1950, secara kuat merefleksikan keyakinannya sebagai manusia yang beriman.
Terakhir, W.D. Gann tidak pernah berhenti belajar. Meski setelah prediksinya terbukti dan meraih reputasi mendunia. Meski dia percaya akan siklus namun dia juga memahami bahwa market selalu berubah dan keputusan harus berdasarkan apa yang terjadi hari ini , bukan kemarin.
John L. Gann, Jr.,cucu William D. Gann.
Disadur dari berbagai sumber yang berasal dari cucu WD Gann
Jawaban yang tepat...
Berikut pertanyaan yang aku kutip dari milis :
" hi...
saya baru tahu yang namanya forex dan ubdah baca yang pake north finance , dan saya interest dengan tujuan tidak lain menambah ilmu dan isi kantong... ( he.. he.. he.. ) mohon bantuan dari rekan sekalian yang bisa ajarin saya bagaimana sih forex itu apakah benar menjanjikan
dan apakah bisa dijadikan alternatif mencari uang ....
regards .."
Dan berikut jawaban salah satu member dalam milis tersebut...
" Memang forex bisa menguntungkan. ......... ........ Tapi awalnya 3 bln anda harus siap loss dulu baru bisa profit.INI SUDAH HRG MATI........ ......... ... Jika anda ingin ikut forex
thx"
wow.... 3 bulan loss adalah harga mati !! 
Sebegitu parahkah????
Aku dulu malah 6 bulan berturut-turut mengalami loss terus... 
Aku setuju dengan statement tersebut mungkin bisa dikatakan 3 bulan tidak cukup untuk memahami makna dari forex dan jika mencoba dengan real potensi loss sangat besar ketika dalam kondisi 3 bulan pertama atau mungkin 6 bulan pertama.
Kenapa??
forex yang anda liat dan kenal dengan persepsi awal sebagai pemula berubah drastis dalam perjalanan anda mempelajari forex dan demo trading.Persepsi sederhana itu akan runtuh dengan sendirinya dan anda akan menyadari bahwa ternyata anda telah membuka pintu dari sebuah rimba yang sejauh mata anda memandang , ujungnya tidak terlihat!! 
Saya kira jika anda pemula sebaiknya , mendengarkan petuah-petuah yang kejam tentang dunia forex terlebih dahulu dan menjauhkan diri dari bahasa marketing forex yang bertebaran di net. Sebab forex sesungguhnya adalah dinding sebuah jurang , dinding yang anda lihat adalah yang menipu mata anda yang memicu nafsu anda untuk merogoh kocek anda dan melemparkan duit anda ke balik dinding dengan harapan dari balik dinding anda akan menerima 10 x lipat dari apa yang anda lempar!!!
Sebagai pemula tentu minim informasi dan menjadi sasaran empuk banyak pihak so jika memang benar-benar baru mengenal dunia forex , ada baiknya anda mencerna makna dari statement dari milis tersebut.
" Memang forex bisa menguntungkan. ......... ........ Tapi awalnya 3 bln anda harus siap loss dulu baru bisa profit. INI SUDAH HRG MATI........ ......... ... Jika anda ingin ikut forex"
( Saya menghargai penulis statement ini atas kejujurannya.... 
)
