Salah satu cara menemukan system trading yang terbaik bagi anda…….

Sudah menjadi rahasia umum jika seorang pemula seringkali mencoba berbagai system trading ketika mulai masa pembelajarannya setelah masa pengenalan. Hal ini sesungguhnya adalah salah satu cara yang bagus bagi kita untuk menemukan mana system trading yang cocok dan pas bagi seorang trader.

Dengan melakukan uji-coba sendiri serta mencari review dari trader lain di banyak media adalah salah satu proses pembelajaran yang paling tepat. Dimana ketika melakukan uji coba maka sesungguhnya banyak hal yang dipelajari mulai dari mengenal konsep orang lain tentang trading dalam bentuk system trading yang di uji-coba , pengenalan akan komponen dalam sebuah paket system trading baik itu money management , indicator dan hal hal lainnya.

Dengan mengenal banyak system trading tentu suatu saat akan dengan sendirinya menemukan sebuah system trading yang berkenan di hati , setidaknya memiliki prototype system trading yang diinginkan. Mungkin di beberapa sisi kurang sreg maka kemudian system trading tersebut di coba untuk di bongkar pasang sesuai keinginan hati. Dan saya kira hal ini jamak terjadi di semua trader….

Hasil dari uji-coba dan mereview system trading yang sudah ada bisa kita buatkan catatan tradingnya… bagaimana performancenya sekaligus belajar bagaimana kelemahan-kelemahan yang terjadi ketika proses uji-coba terjadi baik itu kelemahan dalam diri trader maupun pada system trading itu sendiri mengingat adanya kemungkinan beda konsep pemikiran antara pencipta dengan kita.

Dari sana kita bisa menghasilkan banyak system trading yang sudah teruji-coba performancenya baik secara backtest maupun live demo. Dan sebenarnya kita juga tidak perlu bersusah payah lagi membangun system trading baru sendiri… he he he pengalaman membuat system trading sendiri adalah bentuk keegoan masing-masing trader.

Namun apapun itu yang perlu di pahami , system trading adalah sebuah konsep kerangka pikir dalam menilai pola yang terjadi di market. Disini artinya secara langsung terjadi penyempitan makna akan market yaitu berdasarkan system trading itu sendiri…. ini berarti system trading hanya bekerja di rules yang telah di tentukan sendiri olehnya. Tentunya hal ini membuat system trading hanya akan bermanfaat jika kondisi yang di tentukan di penuhi , jika tidak maka akan terjadi bias ketika entry………

Dan ini berarti pula bahwa kita tidak bisa mengutak-utik system trading yang sudah ada dengan seenaknya tanpa memahami konsep dasar dari system trading itu sendiri. Jika sebuah kondisi tidak mampu di tampung oleh system trading yang di uji-coba tersebut itu berarti bukan saatnya untuk entry. Hal ini bukanlah kelemahan… dan filter lain belum tentu bisa menyelesaikan masalah sebab bisa jadi ketika terjadi kondisi yang menurut kita system tersebut tidak jalan dan ketika diberikan filter lain ternyata berkerja akan dapat bekerja di kondisi yang lain.

Satu hal yang saya pelajari ketika menguji-coba banyak system trading adalah kita mempelajari bagaimana trader memandang tentang dunia trading itu sendiri….. disana kita akan menemukan konsep dasar yang lugas yang akan memberikan anda informasi yang sederhana untuk menaklukkan kondisi market secara sederhana pula.

Selamat bertrading……..

Tehnikal analis adalah wilayah yang terbatas………

Jika kita cermati sesungguhnya trading adalah pola bermain di support dan resistensi. Apapun system trading anda selama menggunakan tehnikal analis pasti yang di acu utama adalah batasan-batasan yang dijadikan oleh view system trading anda sebagai support atau resistensi.
Ini artinya tehnikal analis adalah wilayah yang terbatas.

Seorang senior trader mengatakan kepadaku ; “Selesaikan pelajaran tehnikal analisamu dan segera masuk ke fundamental…… setelah itu terserah kamu akan melakukan apa”. Jujur awalnya aku kaget dia mengatakan “Selesaikan tehnikal analisamu” karena itu berarti analisa tehnikal adalah wilayah yang terbatas yang bisa kita pelajari hingga selesai dan hal ini berbeda dengan wilayah fundamental yang selalu bermain di wilayah abu-abu dimana selalu informasi yang terlambat yang kita terima. Mungkin itu alasan beliau mengatakan “setelah itu terserah kamu akan melakukan apa”.

Setelah aku menjalani proses pembelajaranku hingga saat ini memang aku melihat demikian adanya bahwa tehnikal adalah terbatas , terbatas oleh pencanangan di support dan resistensi yang ada di dalam view system trading masing-masing.

Meski bisa dikatakan setiap bulan muncul system trading baru namun apapun itu selama masih tehnikal dapat kita katakana hanyalah cara memandang resistensi dan support dengan cara lain.

Jika resistensi dan support adalah batas , haruskah kita mempelajari semua yang ada di dunia tehnikal analisa? Haruskah kita mempelajari semua konsep dari indicator yang ada saat ini? Haruskah kita meramu indicator sedemikian hingga…. Support dan resistensi terlihat jelas ?

Pertanyaan tersebut sering aku temui , dan hampir semuanya akhirnya menemukan jawabannya sendiri ketika mereka memahami bahwa tehnikal analisa hanyalah masalah bagaimana menilai sebuah garis atau titik-titik yang di identifikasikan sebagai resistensi dan support.
Kalo begitu kenapa kita harus repot…??

The Greatest Investors: Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham

Born:	London in 1894; Died 1976
Affiliations:	Newburger, Henderson & Loeb Graham-Newman Corporation
Most Famous For:	Ben Graham excelled as an investment manager and financial educator. He authored, among others, two investment classics of unparalleled importance. He is also universally recognized as the father of two fundamental investment disciplines – security analysis and value investing. His two seminal books, "Security Analysis" (1934), written with David Dodd, and "TheIntelligent Investor" (1949) are considered by many investment professionals to be the best books ever written for stock investors. Both of these books have never been out of print and are still used as texts for university-level courses on investing. John Train, in his investment classic, "The Money Masters" (1980), cites Graham's brilliance and influence as such: "Benjamin Graham ranks as this century's (and perhaps history's) most important thinker on applied portfolio investment, taking it from an art, based on impressions, inside information, flair, to a proto-science, an orderly discipline. He applied great astuteness, hard experience, and infinitely detailed labor to a field full of superstition, tips and guesswork, one in which most people who have something to say also have an incentive to deceive the listener." He is also famous for being a teacher and mentor for Warren Buffet as well as for other well-known investors.

Personal Profile
Benjamin Graham came to the United States as a one-year-old immigrant from England in 1895. He grew up in Manhattan and Brooklyn, New York. His father died when he was nine years old and the family's hard times, economically speaking, left Graham with a lifetime preoccupation with achieving financial security.

He graduated from Columbia University in 1914 and went to work immediately for a Wall Street firm, Newburger, Henderson & Loeb, as a messenger. By 1920, he was a partner in the firm.

In 1926, Graham formed an investment partnership with Jerome Newman and started lecturing at Columbia on finance, an endeavor which lasted until his retirement in 1956. It is reported that Graham was wiped out personally in the stock market crash of 1929, but the investment partnership survived and gradually recouped its position.

Ben Graham learned some valuable lessons from this experience and, in 1934, co-authored a hefty textbook titled "Security Analysis", which is widely considered an investment classic. The Graham-Newman partnership prospered, boasting an average annual return of 17% until its termination in 1956.

Investment Style
Morningstar's online Interactive Classroom carries this anecdote about the results of Ben Graham's investing style:

"In 1984, [Warren] Buffet returned to Columbia to give a speech commemorating the fiftieth anniversary of the publication of "Security Analysis". During that speech, he presented his own investment record as well as those of Ruane, Knapp, and Schloss [other successful investment managers who were students of Graham at Columbia]. In short, each of these men posted investment results that blew away the returns of the overall market. Buffett noted that each of the portfolios varied greatly in the number and type of stocks, but what did not vary was the managers' adherence to Graham's investment principles."

It is difficult to encapsulate Benjamin Graham's investing style in a few sentences or paragraphs. Readers are strongly urged to refer to his "The Intelligent Investor" to obtain a more thorough understanding of his investment principles.

In brief, the essence of Graham's value investing is that any investment should be worth substantially more than an investor has to pay for it. He believed in thorough analysis, which we would call fundamental analysis. He sought out companies with strong balance sheets, or those with little debt, above-average profit margins, and ample cash flow.

He coined the phrase "margin of safety" to explain his common-sense formula that seeks out undervalued companies whose stock prices are temporarily down, but whose fundamentals, for the long run, are sound. The margin of safety on any investment is the difference between its purchase price and its intrinsic value. The larger this difference is (purchase price below intrinsic), the more attractive the investment - both from a safety and return perspective - becomes. The investment community commonly refers to these circumstances as low value multiple stocks (P/E, P/B, P/S).

Graham also believed that market valuations (stock prices) are often wrong. He used his famous "Mr. Market" parable to highlight a simple truth: stock prices will fluctuate substantially in value. His philosophy was that this feature of the market offers smart investors "an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal."

Publications

• "Security Analysis" (1934) by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd
• "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham (1949)
• "Benjamin Graham: The Memoirs Of The Dean Of Wall Street" by Benjamin Graham and Seymour Chatman (editor) (1996)
• "Benjamin Graham On Value Investing: Lessons From The Dean Of Wall Street" by Janet Lowe (1999)

Quotes

"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks."

" Most of the time stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble … to give way to hope, fear and greed."

"Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd."

"It is absurd to think that the general public can ever make money out of market forecasts."

"It is rare that the founder of a discipline does not find his work eclipsed in rather short order by successors. But for over forty years after publication of the book ["Security Analysis"] that brought structure and logic to a disorderly and confused activity, it is difficult to think of possible candidates for even the runner-up position in the field of security analysis." (Warren Buffet, Financial Analyst Journal, November/December 1976)

investopedia.com

Week Ahead In US Financial Markets (September 1-September 5 2008)

Financial Markets Summary For The Week of September 1-5

The week of September 1-5 will see a holiday induced four day trading week that will be light on data, but will see the return of heavy volume to the equities market and feature the publication of the August non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The week will kick off with the release of the ISM manufacturing report and the total vehicle sales report, both for August. Wednesday will see the factory orders estimate for July and the Fed beige book for the July –August period. Weekly jobless claims, the ISM non-manufacturing composite and the Q2 estimate of non-farm productivity will be released on Thursday.

Fed Talk

The week ahead will see a number of Fed speakers on the schedule. Monday will see Atlanta Fed President Hoenig speak on inflation and inflationary pressures in the US economy at 08:30 AM EDT on 1 September. Dallas President Fisher will speak on the US economy at 1:40 EDT on 4 September. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen will speak twice during the upcoming week. On 4 September she will speak on the US economic outlook at 2:30 EDT. The following day Ms. Yellen will again address the economic outlook at 3:55 EDT. Boston Fed President Rosengren will speak on September 3 at 12:30 EDT topic TBA.

ISM Manufacturing (August) Tuesday 10:00 AM

The Institute for Supply Management's estimate of activity in the industrial sector for the month of August should see a slight decline on the back of modest economic activity at home and abroad. Although, purchasing managers should see a glimmer of hope on the back of what we think will be a very sharp decline in the prices paid component, the shoddy state of new orders and a second straight decline in new export orders should feature what will be a fall back to 49.3 in the headline for the month.

Total Vehicle Sales (August) Tuesday: Throughout The Day

The ongoing adjustment in domestic motor vehicle industry should continue in August when we expect that domestic vehicle sales will arrive at 9.4mln and total vehicle sales will come in at 13.0mln. The combination of lack of demand for the fuel inefficient vehicles still on the market and the substitution of private transportation for mass transport in large metropolitan areas is subtly reshaping the domestic auto market. Within the context of tight credit, a weak labor market and falling home prices the auto industry is poised for further problems throughout the remainder of 2008.

Factory Orders (July) Wednesday 10:00 AM

The solid environment for external demand should underlie a mild factory orders report for July. We anticipate that factor orders will increase 1.0% for the month. The second straight above expectations print in durable goods orders for July and the fifth straight above market expectations posting does give some hope that the spillover of financial stress into the real economy will be limited. The market will focus beyond the headline on shipments of non-defense capital good ex-aircraft that is a forward-looking indicator of growth. We expect to observe a solid 0.6% advance in that category.

Fed Beige Book Wednesday 2:00 PM

The market will be focused on the condition of the consumer and the lingering deadweight that is the housing sector on economic activity midyear. The beige book should report modest economic activity with demand still seeing some of the impact from the fiscal stimulus package that arrived in the second quarter of 2008. What might prove more interesting will be the pricing situation during the report. The previous beige book imparted that there were anecdotal reports of demands for wage increases linked to surging headline prices. Should that gain steam, the markets current rosy outlook on future inflation may be slightly altered.

Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Aug 30) Thursday 08:30 AM

Initial claims over the past two weeks has surged well above the critical threshold of 400K and the less volatile four week moving average has increased to 442K. The strong move to the upside may partially be a function of legislative changes that have enabled continuing files to be identified and initial filers. This implies that the market should see the headline moderate over the coming weeks. Thus we expect a 435K print for the upcoming week.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Thursday 08:30 AM

The service sector reflects the stress of higher headline costs and mixed prospects in the labor market that have defined the condition of the consumer over the past several months. We expect that the headline for the ISM non-manufacturing activity estimate will modestly ease to 49.3.

Q2 Non-Farm Productivity Thursday 08:30 AM

Amidst a very difficult economic environment over the past year, productivity continues to hold up quite well. Firms that did not over indulge themselves during the expansion have maintained worker output per hour though 2007-08. During energy shocks, one would normally expect to productivity to weaken, but the lagged impact of past investment in technology appears to have provided a cushion for firms to weather the storm. We expect productivity in the second quarter to increase 3.0% primarily on the back of firms reducing payrolls to hedge against further economic downturns ahead.

Non-Farm Payrolls (August) Friday 08:30 AM

The rise in initial jobless claims throughout the sampling period may be a bit ripe due to a policy change in how first time claimants are accounted for. However, the smoothed four-week moving average has moved above the 400K level. The carnage in the goods producing sector, construction and manufacturing will continue. In July, other than the health care, education and hospitality sectors all other major categories of private sector hiring went negative or were flat for the month. We expect the headline to see a net subtraction of -75K for August and the unemployment rate to rise to 5.7% for the month.

Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist
Merk Investments
http://www.merkfund.com/

The views in this article were those of Axel Merk as of the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities mentioned herein. Mr. Merk is the founder and president of Merk Investments LLC and is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Apa yang ditunjukkan oleh ketakutan ketika bertrading

Takut adalah emosi dasar manusia dan adalah sesuatu hal yang wajar namun ada kalanya takut bukan sekedar sebuah emosional naluriah melainkan wajah lain dari ketidakpahaman akan sesuatu.

Pemain sirkus yang bergelantungan di ketinggian 10 meter telah mengalami penggeseran makna dari sebuah ketakutan. Ketakutan akan ketinggian telah bergeser menjadi ketakutan pada akan diri sendiri yang jika lepas control maka dia akan menerima akibatnya.
Hal ini tidak jauh berbeda dengan seorang trader , ketakutan seharusnya bukan dikarenakan oleh kehilangan uang ketika mengalami LOSS. Bukan oleh terjadinya news atau kondisional hectic… sebab semua itu merupakan serangkaian mekanisme dari sebuah system trading yang kita bangun.

Ketakutan kita seharusnya jatuh pada emosional kita sendiri , sikap ceroboh kita sendiri , sikap-sikap yang kurang tepat bagi seorang trader yaitu melanggar rules dari system trading yang telah kita tentukan sendiri.

Money Management yang baik adalah mekanisme penghilang ketakutan dan ini adalah sebuah mekanisme alamiah dari sebuah bentuk emosional “ketakutan” manusia yang lebih didasari oleh angan-angan. MM memberikan kesan dan pemahaman bahwa kita tidak akan terperosok lebih jauh dan keterperosokan kita pahami sebagai sebuah kondisional lumrah dalam dunia bertrading sehingga tidak perlu menimbulkan ketakutan apapun. Kecuali ketakutan di omelin istri gara-gara kebutuhan dibiayai oleh uang tabungan bukan oleh profit dari trading… tapi kalo istrinya juga seorang trader beda lagi kali yaa…..

So jika masih ada ketakutan dalam diri kita sebaik kita teliti ulang bagian dari system trading kita yang manakah yang menimbulkan ketakutan itu… setelah itu koreksilah karena ketakutan adalah mekanisme alam sebagai bentuk perlindungan dalam diri kita sendiri. Tidak ada yang salah dengan ketakutan , justru yang menjadi masalah adalah apa yang membuat kita takut… bukan apa yang ada di luar melainkan apa yang ada di dalam diri kita sendiri yaitu semua konsep pemikiran yang kita tuangkan dalam system trading.

Time to trade……..enjoy it!!

Korelasi titik resiko dan titik entry.....

Dalam sebuah system trading , resiko sangat memiliki kaitan erat dengan titik entry sebab titik entry merupakan titik permulaan perjalanan prosentase risk dan rewards. Korelasi ini sangat erat dimana entry yang terbaik adalah entry yang akan menciptakan resiko terrendah... meski tidak selalu begitu.

Entry yang baik adalah entry yang tidak bias dan memenuhi komponen rules dari sebuah system trading yang kita terapkan. Jika kita menemukan entry yang tidak memiliki kejelasan titik maka menurutku perlu adanya evaluasi terhadap system trading yang sedang kita anut karena hal ini akan membiaskan potensi yang kita terapkan kepada risk and rewardsnya.

Entry yang tidak bias akan memberikan sedikit tekanan secara psikologis bagi trader karena dia tidak lagi harus mencari , menerka , menimbang dan meraba-raba.... trade bukanlah gambling karena semua lini memiliki sisi analisa yang matang. Tidak sekedar batas-batas support dan resistensi yang dianut , tidak sekedar chart pattern yang ditentukan melainkan semua yang berkaitan dengan analisa trading.

Demikian juga dengan entry , karena entry adalah awal perjalanan investasi kita... dan kesalahan terbesar seorang trader dimulai dari kesalahan entry. Bukan sebuah soal jika anda open trade dengan entry yang benar kemudian anda floating minus atau loss karena trading hanyalah sebuah probabilitas. Karena sekali kita salah menilai entry ( tentunya berdasarkan system trading yang kita anut ) maka bersiap-siaplah... kita menghamburkan uang kita dengan percuma. Dan trading kita menjadi tidak jelas....

Entry , risk , reward adalah masalah rule bukan disiplin... karena disiplin muncul akibat kebiasan system trading yang kita tetapkan. Secara naluri loss adalah hal yang menyakitkan dan ketidakdisiplinan karena pemula akan cepat belajar dari hal ini namun jika ketidakdisiplinan dikarenakan entry yang bias maka ketidakdisiplinan akan menjadi watak seorang trader.
Dan hanya orang bodoh yang mengulang-ulang hal ini berulang-ulang....

The Greatest Investors: Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch

Born:	Newton, Massachusetts, in 1944.
Affiliations:	Fidelity Investments, Inc. Fidelity Management & Research Company
Most Famous For:	Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, during which time the fund's assets grew from $20 million to $14 billion. More importantly, Lynch reportedly beat the S&P 500 Index benchmark in 11 of those 13 years, achieving an annual average return of 29%. He is also famous for several books including, "One Up On Wall Street" (1989) and "Beating The Street" (1993), which are widely considered to be mandatory reading for any investor.

Personal Profile
Lynch graduated from Boston College in 1965 with a degree in finance. He served two years in the military before attending and graduating from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with a Master of Business Administration in 1968.

He went to work for Fidelity Investments as an investment analyst, eventually becoming the firm's director of research, a position he held from 1974 to 1977. Lynch was named manager of the little known Magellan Fund in 1977 and achieved historic portfolio results in the ensuing years until his retirement in 1990.

In 2007, Peter Lynch was serving as vice-chairman of Fidelity's investment adviser, Fidelity Management & Research Co. Since his retirement, he has been an active participant in a variety of philanthropic endeavors.

Investment Style
Often described as a "chameleon," Peter Lynch adapted to whatever investment style worked at the time. It is said that his work schedule, the equivalent of what we would call today "24/7," did not have a beginning and an end. He talked to company executives, investment managers, industry experts and analysts around the clock.

Apart from this punishing work ethic, Lynch did consistently apply a set of eight fundamental principles to his stock selection process. According to an article by Kaushal Majmudar, a CFA at The Ridgewood Group, Lynch shares his checklist with the audience at an investment conference in New York in 2005:

• Know what you own.
• It's futile to predict the economy and interest rates.
• You have plenty of time to identify and recognize exceptional companies.
• Avoid long shots.
• Good management is very important - buy good businesses.
• Be flexible and humble, and learn from mistakes.
• Before you make a purchase, you should be able to explain why you're buying.
• There's always something to worry about.

In picking stocks (good companies), Peter Lynch stuck to what he knew and/or could easily understand. That was a core position for him. He also dedicated himself to a level of due diligence and stock research that left few stones unturned. He shut out market noise and concentrated on a company's fundamentals, using a bottom-up approach. He only invested for the long run and paid little attention to short-term market fluctuations.

Publications

• "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch with John Rothchild (1989)
• "Beating The Street"Peter Lynch with John Rothchild (1993)
• "Learn To Earn"Peter Lynch with John Rothchild (1996)

Quotes

"Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it."

"If you stay half-alert, you can pick the spectacular performers right from your place of business or out of the neighborhood shopping mall, and long before Wall Street discovers them."

"Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards."

"Absent a lot of surprises, stocks are relatively predictable over twenty years. As to whether they're going to be higher or lower in two to three years, you might as well flip a coin to decide."

"If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes."

investopedia.com

Neoliberalisme vs Neososialisme

TIDAK mudah mendefinisikan neoliberalisme. Bila disederhanakan, doktrin ini memperjuangkan fundamentalisme pasar, yaitu pandangan yang menekankan bahwa mekanisme pasar akan berjalan dengan baik apabila ia bebas bergerak tanpa kendali dan intervensi pemerintah.

Friedrich von Hayek, penerima Nobel Ekonomi 1974, yang bersama gurunya, Ludwig von Mises, selama ini dipandang sebagai "Bapak Neoliberalisme", memang sangat dikenal sebagai penganjur utama deregulasi, liberalisasi, dan privatisasi.

Dalam buku yang sangat terkenal, The Road to Serfdom (1944), Hayek mengkritik keras upaya intervensi besar-besaran yang dilakukan Presiden Roosevelt melalui program New Deal sebagai reformasi yang menempatkan Amerika Serikat "On slippery slope that would lead both to economic ruin and a totalitarian regime".

Akhir-akhir ini doktrin neoliberalisme dikaitkan dengan "Jerat Washington (Washington Consensus)", yang pada intinya juga memberi anjuran sama, yaitu liberalisasi pasar,kebijakan fiskal ketat sebagai bentuk pengurangan intervensi pemerintah, dan privatisasi.

John Williamson, pencetus istilah Washington Consensus di tahun 1989, menolak pengaitan atau penyamaan ini karena baginya istilah tersebut tidak bersifat ideologis atau diturunkan dari filsafat neoliberalisme. Bagi Hayek dan teman-teman,pasar merupakan institusi yang paling pas untuk menyalurkan hakikat dan preferensi manusia sebagai "homo economicus".

Di pasar, ambisi dan energi pribadi yang didorong pementingan diri sendiri akan dikonversi menjadi keseimbangan kolektif yang dinamis.Hanya di pasar,kebebasan untuk memilih terbuka dan dijamin. Tidak berlebihan jika Milton Friedman, pemenang Nobel Ekonomi 1976 dan murid Hayek, memberi judul bukunya yang terkenal dengan Free to Choose (1980).

Individu yang bertindak dengan bebas akan membuat keputusan yang benar apa yang diinginkannya. Dalam banyak hal, cara kerja pasar memang menakjubkan. Peranan pasar dalam kehidupan ekonomi modern mirip seperti peranan matahari dalam sistem planet.

Persoalan-persoalan pokok ekonomi seperti apa yang harus diproduksi dalam jumlah berapa, bagaimana memproduksinya, dan bagaimana distribusinya, dapat dipecahkan melalui mekanisme harga, yang memainkan tiga peranan, yaitu menyediakan informasi, memberi dorongan pelaku ekonomi untuk bertindak, dan menentukan siapa mendapat apa dalam jumlah berapa.

Lepas dari keunggulan dan kekuatan yang dimilikinya, mekanisme pasar memiliki sejumlah kelemahan. Salah satu kelemahan pokok yang melekat padanya adalah ketidakmampuan menciptakan pemerataan pendapatan. Pasar secara teoritis hanya memeratakan kesempatan, sisi input, bukan pendapatan atau sisi output.

Sekali pasar digunakan untuk memeratakan pendapatan, ia tidak bisa menjalankan fungsi lain dengan baik. Pada titik ini muncul kritik atau koreksi dari para pendukung sosialisme.Para pendukung sosialisme menilai,di samping benih-benih demokratis yang dibawanya, sistem pasar juga mengandung benih-benih destruktif.

Bila kecenderungan polarisasi pendapatan terus berlangsung, pasar akan melahirkan proses pemiskinan parah, yang pada akhirnya akan berujung pada revolusi sosial.Itu sebabnya intervensi pemerintah mutlak dibutuhkan untuk mengoreksi kelemahan pasar.

Kekuatan regulatif pemerintah dan modal sosial masyarakat berperan sebagai kekuatan pengimbang (counter-vailing forces), meminjam istilah John Kenneth Galbraith, dari mekanisme pasar. Para penganut neoliberalisme merasa sedih menyaksikan intervensi pemerintah yang memperoleh momentum legitimasi sejak depresi ekonomi pada 1930-an.

Agenda kebijakan ekonomi sejak pertengahan 1930-an sampai 1960-an memang sarat intervensi aktif pemerintah.Pada periode ini pandangan John Maynard Keynes (Keynesian economics) memang sangat dominan. Tetapi Hayek gembira menyaksikan ramalannya tepat, tentang runtuhnya Uni Soviet.

Hayek juga bangga karena menjadi inspirator dari kebijakan ekonomi pada masa Margaret Thatcher dan Ronald Reagan. Akhir-akhir ini di Amerika Latin kita menyaksikan gelombang besar pemimpin yang mengusung doktrin neososialisme.

Para pemimpin ini secara terbuka menyampaikan kritik tajam terhadap cara kerja kapitalisme global yang tidak adil dan cenderung menempatkan negaranegara berkembang dalam posisi terpinggirkan, bahkan terjajah.

Dalam pandangan mereka, kapitalisme global telah bermetamorfosis menjadi kekuatan kolonial dan imperialis global. Mengutip ramalan Lenin,imperialisme merupakan tahap lanjutan dari kapitalisme. Agenda neososialisme antara lain nasionalisasi perusahaan- perusahaan strategis, reformasi kepemilikan tanah dan aset,peran aktif negara untuk memberi jaminan sosial secara maksimal, serta sejenisnya.

Mereka ingin mengoreksi pandangan neoliberal yang antisubsidi dan antiintervensi negara, tetapi yang begitu mesra dengan kepentingan pemodal besar dan korporasi global.Mereka ingin membuktikan bahwa ekonomi pasar sosial yang teranyam (embedded) dalam sistem sosial budaya masyarakat dapat ditegakkan.

Sesungguhnya kritik kaum sosialis telah lama memberi inspirasi koreksi pada sistem kapitalisme. Citacita etis sosialisme selama ini tampak tertampung dalam model negara kesejahteraan (welfare state) dan negara sosial (social state).

Bahkan kaum buruh, yang semula diduga sebagai kelompok masyarakat yang paling dirugikan dari proses akumulasi kepemilikan pribadi, sekarang telah menjadi kelompok penekan yang sangat kuat, dan melalui dana pensiun besar yang dikuasainya telah ikut menjadi pemegang saham korporasi.

Itu yang membuat Peter Drucker (1980) menyebut masyarakat industri modern sebagai "the employee society" dan menyebut "buruh telah berubah menjadi kapitalis". Sosialisme bukan tanpa masalah. Dua penyakit utama sistem ekonomi sosialisme adalah kecenderungannya untuk tidak efisien dan menjadi otoriter.

Seperti yang ditulis Alan Greenspan (2007), para pemimpin Amerika Latin yang mengusung neososialisme (populisme ekonomi) seperti membayangkan dunia yang sederhana, seperti mengerjakan tata buku satu lajur, yaitu hanya mencatat keunggulannya tanpa memperhitungkan kerugiannya.

Pemimpin di sana cenderung karismatik, memiliki aura ambil alih, bahkan kompetensi otoriter. Adakah perkembangan teknologi modern telah mampu mengatasi dua penyakit besar sosialisme? Bila jawabannya "ya", neososialisme akan memiliki daya jual yang semakin tinggi.

Saya jadi teringat salah satu pidato Bung Karno,bahwa revolusi Indonesia adalah revolusi menuju sosialisme. Jauh sebelum gelombang besar neososialisme menggoyang Amerika Latin.

* Guru Besar FE UKSW, Salatiga;
�Alumnus Tinbergen Institute,Belanda.

Source : http://economy.okezone.com

The Greatest Investors: Bill Miller

Bill Miller

Born:	Laurinburg, North Carolina, in 1950
Affiliations:	J.E. Baker Company Legg Mason Capital Management Santa Fe Institute.
Most Famous For:	Bill Miller is the portfolio manager for the Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) fund, which, under his management, recorded one of the longest "winning streaks" in mutual fund history. Between 1991 and 2005, the fund's total return beat the S&P 500 Index for 15 consecutive years. Miller's fund grew from $750 million in 1990 to more than $20 billion in 2006.

Personal Profile
Miller graduated from Washington & Lee University in 1972 with a degree in economics. He went to work for the J. E. Baker Co. and became its treasurer. He joined Legg Mason in 1981 and in 2007, was working a chairman and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Capital Management.

He also serves as chairman of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multidisciplinary research in complex systems theory.

Investment Style
In November of 2006, Fortune Magazine's managing editor, Andy Serwer, characterized Bill Miller's investing style as iconoclastic: "You simply can't do what he's done in the supremely competitive, ultra-efficient world of stock picking by following the pack …The fact is that Miller has spent decades studying freethinking overachievers, and along the way he's become one himself."

Bill Miller is a self-described value investor, but his definition of value investing is somewhat disconcerting to some traditional value investors. Miller believes that any stock can be a value stock if it trades at a discount to its intrinsic value.

Individual investors can learn from Miller's application of this investing principle, which, he says, was the basis for the 15-year benchmark-beating record of the Legg Mason Value Trust fund.

He attributes two factors to this success: exhaustive security analysis and portfolio construction. In his 2006, fourth-quarter letter to the shareholders for Value Trust, Bill Miller explains how these two factors work:

Value investing means really asking what are the best values, and not assuming that because something looks expensive that it is, or assuming that because a stock is down in price and trades at low multiples that it is a bargain … Sometimes growth is cheap and value expensive. . . . The question is not growth or value, but where is the best value … We construct portfolios by using ‘factor diversification.' . . . We own a mix of companies whose fundamental valuation factors differ. We have high P/E and low P/E, high price-to-book and low-price-to-book. Most investors tend to be relatively undiversified with respect to these valuation factors, with traditional value investors clustered in low valuations, and growth investors in high valuations … It was in the mid-1990s that we began to create portfolios that had greater factor diversification, which became our strength …We own low PE and we own high PE, but we own them for the same reason: we think they are mispriced. We differ from many value investors in being willing to analyze stocks that look expensive to see if they really are. Most, in fact, are, but some are not. To the extent we get that right, we will benefit shareholders and clients.

Publications

• "The Man Who Beats The S&P: Investing With Bill Miller" by Janet Lowe (2002)

Quotes

"I often remind our analysts that 100% of the information you have about a company represents the past, and 100% of a stock's valuation depends on the future."

"The market does reflect the available information, as the professors tell us. But just as the funhouse mirrors don't always accurately reflect your weight, the markets don't always accurately reflect that information. Usually they are too pessimistic when it's bad, and too optimistic when it's good."

"What we try to do is take advantage of errors others make, usually because they are too short-term oriented, or they react to dramatic events, or they overestimate the impact of events, and so on."

Investopedia.com

Belajar dari kesalahan......

Hmm... siapa yang tidak pernah melakukan kesalahan di dunia ini?

Seorang trader yang banyak melakukan kesalahan dan belajar adalah calon trader yang akan menjadi bagian dari 10% survival trader. Kita bisa banyak temukan di forum-forum maupun milis dan media lainnya pengalaman teman-teman trader yang babak belur terlebih dahulu sebelum menemukan apa yang sesuai dengan mereka.

Trading adalah proses pembelajaran , disana ada try and error... uji coba , salah dan perbaiki. Bisa dikatakan semua trader pasti melewati hal ini sedangkan yang membedakan antara satu trader dengan trader yang lainnya adalah bagaimana trader mengakui dan menyikapi kesalahannya.

Salah satu cara yang tepat dalam belajar dari kesalahan adalah dengan bertanggung-jawab atas hasil tradingnya. Jika anda bertrading dalam jumlah kecil mungkin rasa kehilangan akan tidak terasa namun beda jika anda menggunakan modal terakhir anda , hutang , hasil uang pesangon , warisan atau mungkin modal orang lain yang jelas-jelas disana martabat anda turut dipertaruhkan secara tidak langsung.

Perilaku dan mental yang buruk adalah musuh utama bagi trader dalam hal belajar dari kesalahan , terlebih bagi mereka yang telah buta dengan meyakini sebuah system trading yang dipercaya mampu mendulang keuntungan dan telah dibuktikan oleh orang lain. Mereka telah lupa bahwa trading adalah masalah personal... bekerja di orang lain belum tentu berhasil di kita.

Sikap tanggung-jawab atas hasil trading akan memberikan efek secara tidak langsung terhadap sikap berhati-hati terhadap semua transaksi yang dilakukan. Sikap hati-hati ini akan memberikan efek kesabaran dalam menunggu posisi yang terbaik , analisa yang lebih unggul serta perhitungan yang matang dalam money management dan tentunya penggunaan anasir dalam system strategy trading yang dianutnya.

Orang bilang pengalaman adalah guru yang terbaik namun akan menjadi percuma jika kita tidak mampu menemukan hikmah dibalik pengalaman tersebut. Menemukan hikmah adalah masalah mental dan tanggung-jawab adalah sikap mental yang turut membantu kita menemukan hikmah dan belajar dari semua yang kita lakukan.

Mungkin benar adanya jika seorang ahli yang menyarankan agar pemula sebaiknya melewati pengalaman yang menyakitkan terlebih dahulu agar timbul kewaspadaan diri akan bahaya dan rumitnya dunia trading yang akan ditekuninya.... trading is zero tolerence zone.

Mari kita tumbuhkan lagi sikap lebih bertanggung-jawab , tidak asal-asalan , sembrono dan kalo emang enggak mood mending mending tidur aja....

Arti sebuah resiko.......

Salah satu komponen dalam system trading adalah resiko atau risk... yang biasanya dikenal dalam konsep RR atau Risk and Reward. Artinya dalam satu kali transaksi achievement serta risk yang kita persiapkan seberapa besar , tentunya semakin kecil prosentase resiko dibandingkan target achivementnya alias rewardnya. Ada yang bilang maksimal 3 : 1 namun dalam keadaan tertentu bisa menyentuh 5:1 dan hal ini adalah sebuah seni tersendiri dalam dunia forex ....

Keahlian seorang trader meletakkan konsep resiko adalah mencirikan penguasaan trader dalam tetek bengek transaksi dan system trading meski konskuensi selalu ada sebab dimana filter yang terlalu ketat sehingga menghasilkan nilai perbandingan RR yang terbaik tentu akan memberikan titik entry yang jarang. So kesabaran dibutuhkan disini......

Masing-masing trader memiliki konsep tersendiri dalam management resiko yang diterapkan dalan system tradingnya , ada yang menganggap penentuan titik stoploss adalah sebuah management resiko yang terbaik namun adapula yang menganggap bahwa tanpa SL adalah mekanisme yang lebih baik meski seringkali dibantah oleh SL-er bahwa tanpa SL artinya tanpa mendefinisikan sebuah resiko dalam trading.

Menetapkan titik terbaik resiko sangat dibutuhkan meski kita menganut pola hedge , locking , doubling , averaging maupun tanpa SL.... artinya kita memiliki skenario kerugian baik itu kerugian terkecil maupun yang terburuk. Dan hal ini yang perlu dikuasai bagi penganut non-SL sebab adakalanya P/L yang minus secara psikologis akan menahan trader mengambil keputusan eksekusi cut loss dan terlalu banyak berharap.

Mau tidak mau suka tidak suka hal ini harus diperhatikan penuh sebab menurut para ahli jika masalah ini sudah teratasi maka dengan sendirinya yang lainnya juga.... begitu kira-kira atau kira-kira begitu.

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs

August 17, 2008

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs

The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

As noted last week, all kinds of bubbles have been bursting in August. The big ones have been in oil, gold, the commodity currencies and the EUR/USD. The most important development has been the EUR/USD penetration of its 200-day moving average at 1.5235. Once that happened, the EUR/USD reached a critical point of no return. There have been massive short USD positions accumulated over the past few years that cannot be unwound in a week. A need to reduce short USD positions over time will put a lid on EUR/USD rallies.

As indicated last week, the fortunes of the USD and oil have been closely intertwined, but the strength of that correlation could be weakening. One characteristic of a bull USD move is when the markets start to single out individual vulnerable currences and run at them one at a time. Recently, the Aussie dollsr, the kiwi and sterling have been individually singled out for attacks.

As for the market dynamics, dealers are no longer on the fence for EUR/USD, and decidedly lean in the direction of a higher USD in a longer term time perspective. Where this liquidation phase leads is anybody's guess.

Click on chart for two year history

In Japan, no changes in monetary policy are in store for a good while into the future. There is no pressure for higher interest rates from the BOJ. The economy is currently presenting a more negative picture. No major shifts in the spread in the 2-yr bond spread between Japan and the U.S. is likely anytime soon.

Click on chart for two year history

The U.S. and Eurozone economies have been slowing. The U.S. is much further along in the process. Note below in the U.S. Monetary Policy outlook insert that official U.S. rates have reached a floor, but are not headed higher for a while.

UNITED STATES

GVI U.S. Feberal Reserve Bank Policy Meeting Preview Decision: August 5 at 18:15 GMT. Fed Funds rate: 2.00% Expected Decision: No rate change Short-term market sentiment contnues to exert a strong infuence on Fed policy decisions. On Wednesday June 25, the central bank held its fed funds target steady at 2.00%. The policy statement disappointed the markets because it did not clearly signal a policy tightening. Future policy decisions now will be data-dependent. FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.

The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

Major Currency Pairs - Currency Forecasts- Monthly Perspective

The ECB seems to be indicating that monetary policy is no longer in a tightening phase due to inflationary pressures (see policy insert below). The E-Z economy has been showing signs recently of rapid deterioration. Some wonder if M. Trichet will last much longer in his job.

EUROZONE

GVI European Central Bank Policy Meeting Preview Decision: August 7, 2008 at 11:45 GMT. ECB Refi rate: 4.00% Expected Decision: High risk of +25bp rate hike. ECB President Trichet signaled the rate hike in July after the June ECB governing council meeting. Policy is now on hold as the central bank awits upcoming data. Key Eurozone PMI figures, which correlate well with GDP, are pointing to a developing economic slowdown. ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB "refi" rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

The Japanese economy is in a weakening state and now inflation has started to show up in key price indices. Tokyo is not unhappy with a weakening JPY.

JAPAN

GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview Decision: July 15, 2008 Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50% Expected decision: No change. Speculation about a future BOJ rate cut abounds. The economy has started to turn more mixed. The political situation also is unstable. BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy." The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

The markets now expect Bank of England rate reductions by the end of this year as the economy swiftly weakens. The GBP has been under severe pressure due to worries about the deteriorating economy.

UNITED KINGDOM

GVI Bank of England Policy Meeting Preview Decision: August 7, 2008 at 11:00 GMT. BOE Repo Rate: 5.00% Expected Decision: No change. BOE policy makers continue to balance concerns about inflation against the risk of a slowing economy. Note below that both the U.K. Manufacturing and Services PMIs have turned south. Inflation data are a worry and will prevent any ease in the near future. BANK OF ENGLAND Policy Objective: The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability, low inflation, and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government's inflation target of 2%. The chart above shows year/year CPI for the U.K. relative to its 2% target for this key price index.

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Repo Rate and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.K. interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the U.K. repo rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

The Swiss National Bank tries to maintain a stable relationship of the CHF vs. the EUR. It is never pleased with weakness of the CHF against the EUR.

SWITZERLAND

GVI Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting Preview Decision: June 19 at 08:30 GMT. SNB 3mo Swiss libor target: 2.75% Expected Decision: Risk of +25bp The SNB had indicated that the peak in interest rates had been reached. However, intensifying inflationary pressures and a probable ECB rate hike in early July could tip the scale to higher rates. The Swiss CPI (see below) is well above its target ceiling of 2.0%. The SNB manages the value of the CHF as critical element of monetary poilcy. SWISS NATIONAL BANK Policy Objective: The National Bank equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per annum. In so doing, it takes account of the fact that not every price movement is necessarily inflationary. Furthermore, it believes that inflation cannot be measured accurately. Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and services improves. Such changes are not properly accounted for in the CPI; as a result, inflation, as measured by the CPI, will be slightly overstated. The chart above shows year/year CPI and the Swiss goal of less than 2% for this price index.

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current three-month Euro-Swiss target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Swiss interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the Swiss three-month Euro-swiss rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

The Australian economy is clearly slowing. The key foci for the Reserve Bank of Australia remain inflation and slowing external demand. The Reserve Bank of Australia has signaled a 25 bp rate cut in September.

AUSTRALIA

GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting Preview Decision Anouncement: July 1, 2007 at 04:30 GMT. RBA Cash Rate Target: 7.25% No rate changes likely. Inflation continues to be a problem for the Reserve Bank. Nevertheless, officials have suggested that some softness might be developing in the economy. This suggests that rates have reached their cyclical peaks. Note in the chart below that the two RBA core price measures are testing the top end of the bank's allowable limit. The global economic slowdown and historic highs of AUD are likely to restrain the risk of future rate hikes. RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy. The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index.

The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

Trading in the CAD had been volatile as the Bank of Canada was making aggressive rate cuts to keep pace with the Fed and to get ahead of a possible economic slowdown. No more rate reductions are in the pipeline.

CANADA

GVI Bank of Canada Policy Meeting Preview Decision: July 15 at 13:00 GMT. BOC Overnight Target Rate: 3.00% Expected Decision: no rate change. The Bank of Canada surprised the markets on June 10 by holding rates steady. It also clearly signaled that policy now is on hold. It said: "the Bank now judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriately accommodative to bring aggregate demand and supply into balance and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target. There continue to be important downside and upside risks to inflation in Canada, which the Bank will monitor closely. BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI. The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index.

The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current BOC overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest rates are headed.

The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor's degree in International Economics from Berkeley.