Hasil sementara praktikum korelasi pairs...

Setelah sebulan lebih uji coba atas ketahanan konsep triangular korelasi pairsku ternyata akhirnya memberikan hasil yang positif setelah 3 hari berturut turut Gajah nyungsep setelah sebelumnya ratusan minus floating di gajah.

Secara historical pergerakan GU dan UJ serta GJ senantiasa harmonis dan ini sudah menjadi ketentuan alam bagi dunia forex maka jika gu dan uj naek tentu hasil gj naek jika turun gj-pun ikut turun sedangkan jika bertentangan maka bergantung mana yang kuat maka gj akan mengikuti.

Untuk uji coba kali ini aku menerapkan beberapa paket dengan pola averaging down sehingga wal hasil open sell gajahku sempat mencapai floating minus hingga seribu lebih namun berkat kuncian dengan menggunakan gu dan uj maka P/L yang terjadi hanyalah minus 300-an.

Dengan mempertimbangkan marginku , uji coba kali ini aku buat menjadi 4 paket dengan avergaing down 4 level dengan range 100 pip dan hasil sementara paket ke 4 sudah mengalami positif floating 200an yang lebih dipengaruhi oleh pergerakan GU yang melonjak tinggi sedangkan UJ terseret oleh gajah.

Untuk paket ke 3 sementara hasil sudah mendekati NOL tinggal paket ke 1 dan ke 2... moga-moga aja selamat

Hmm....sebenarnya pingin mencoba pada pairs lain yang memiliki swap lebih besar tentunya pairs-nya juga agak-agak aneh tapi apa daya harus selamatkan margin dulu.....

Menanti saat yang tepat dan sebuah arti kesabaran....

Salah satu hal yang membutuhkan kesabaran dalam bertrading adalah mengamati dan menilai bahwa saat ini market sudah memasuki area breakout.

Proses harga bergerak mencoba menembus batas batas resistensi ataupun support adalah salah satu hal yang menarik dari sisi dunia trading. Disana kita melihat betapa saat itu ada ribuan trader dari seluruh dunia mencoba menembus batas dari apa yang trader lainnya buat , resistensi dan support. Jika kita mengamati secara tick movement maka kita mungkin akan menemukan betapa harga tarik ulur , sisi bearish menekan setiap pergerakan naik sedangkan bullish terus berusaha menjebol atau sebaliknya. Terlihat jelas peperangan itu terjadi di time frame 1 M.

Adakalanya harga meluncur setelah menembus batas dan tiba-tiba kembali ditekan untuk masuk kedalam range namun adakalanya pula harga bergerak liar tanpa tahu akan berhenti dimana karena harga puncak atau terendah baru sedang tercipta.

Breakout , telah menciptakan trader-trader dunia untuk merangkai indikator menjadi sebuah system yang mujarab bagi mendeteksi pola dan bentuk breakout yang terjadi. Ada yang menjadikannya sesuai yang rumit ada yang sederhana baik itu cukup dengan trendline ada pola dari candlestick yang terbentuk , atau pola lainnya.

Namun apapun itu , sesungguhnya trader hanya mengamati satu hal yaitu false signal.
False signal seringkali membuat trader mati kutu ketika open trade-nya nyangkut dan harga kembali masuk ke dalam area dan tentunya beragam pula reaksi para trader dalam menyikapi hal ini. Ada yang buru-buru meng-cut loss , ada yang berdiam diri karena tanpa SL , ada juga yang segera melakukan pengamanan yang lain baik itu locking ataupun averaging ( meski menurutku averaging adalah suatu hal yang kurang tepat dalam hal ini).

Disini menurutku butuh sebuah kesabaran sebelum masuk dalam market , sabar menunggu market mengidentifikasikan dirinya sendiri bahwa market telah setuju akan adanya breakout. Just let's tehe market tell who they are.....
Adakalanya emosi mengompori pikiran untuk segera open trade dengan berbagai macam argue-nya tapi justru itulah seninya forex , semua kembali ke dalam diri trader masing-masing sebab apapun pergerakan harga di market adalah hal yang sama yang terjadi sebelumnya.

Sideway, channel, breakout, trend, retrace dan reversal........

Semua itu terjadi terus menerus dalam pelbagai kesempatan dan karena terjadi terus menerus maka semua itu memiliki sebuah pola , yaitu pola pengidentifikasian bentuk. Jika di trit channel aku lebih menegaskan terhadap diriku sendiri bahwa "pola tested" adalah pola pengidentifikasian bentuk. Sedangkan salah satu pola pengidentifikasian pada breakout channel yang paling aku sukai adalah pola 1-2-3 , meski sebuah breakout terjadi maka aku tetap menunggu pola ini terjadi kecuali breakout terjadi dengan kekuatan penuh yang dapat kita hitung dari prosentase range dan pergerakan breakout harga yang terjadi. Tentu hal ini tidak berlaku di breakout trendline ataupun triangle juga breakout indikator seperti garis MA....

Semua itu kembali ke sebuah kesabaran........, jangan takut eman-eman tidak bisa menikmati hasil dari situasi breakout yang terjadi karena kita tidak akan pernah tahu apakah pergerakan harga itu benar-benar breakout sebelum mereka mengidentifikasikan diri mereka sendiri.
Kecuali memang anda scalper yang hanya ingin menikmati pips kecil dari breakout yang terjadi.... sebab saya tahu ini kenikmatan tersendiri bagi anda.

So , saya kira kesabaran adalah hal yang penting dimana dikesempatan ini aku mengekpresikan dalam situasi breakout trading namun lepas daripada itu kesabaran adalah penting karena sebuah mekanisme dalam menentukan titik yang terbaik sebelum entry market bukan karena sekedar kata guru agama kita!

Dan kesabaran adalah filter... untuk menemukan titik yang terbaik dalam system trading untuk meningkatkan fungsi probabilitas dalam bertrading. Dan itu artinya percuma kita bersabar jika tidak paham bagaimana pola pengidentifikasian yang terjadi di setiap kejadian di market......

Selamat bertrading........

Jangan serakah.... tapi jangan takut

Serakah , adalah salah satu penyakit trader begitu juga dengan ketakutan.
Seseorang terjun dalam market tentu dengan segudang ilmu trading system dengan segala macam tetek bengek startegynya namun apapun itu yang kita bawa tetaplah keputusan berada dalam otak kita yang dipengaruhi oleh hati. Kadang kita realistik tapi kadang terpengaruh emosi dan hal ini sudah jamak setiap hari bahkan setiap saat di dunia trader....

Permasalahan akan muncul ketika tidak konsisten dengan system trading kita dan inkonsistensi itu didasari oleh 2 hal tadi serakah dan ketakutan!! Se-senior apapun anda penyakit ini pasti ada sebab berkaitan dengan psikology trader , oleh sebab itu kemudian timbul sebuah keyakinan bahwa EA atau Expert Advisor adalah obat mujarab untuk mengatasi masalah itu.

Ada yang setuju tapi banyak juga yang tidak dengan alasan bahwa market adalah dinamis sehingga butuh sentuhan manusia untuk mengantisipasi hal-hal diluar math EA itu sendiri. Namun pengikut EA-pun tidak mau kalah... mereka mengatakan bahwa EA sudah ditentukan titik-titik pengamanannya so jika ada kejadian luar biasa atau KLB maka dia sudah dapat mengamankan diri. Sedangkan forex adalah probabilitas , so jika EA terbukti bekerja di area probabilitas yang tinggi kenapa kita harus repot bertrading???? Tentu yang anti EA akan begini
sedangkan yang tidak paham malah... sedangkan yang lainnya.

Sebuah system trading yang baik , mereka sudah menentukan area take profit begitu juga area abu-abunya namun tak jarang sifat serakah dalam diri manusia yang bisa jadi dikarenakan tumbuhnya percaya diri yang berlebihan akibat profit-profitnya membuat dia inkonsistensi. Namun keserakahan juga bisa muncul ketika anda mengalami ketakutan yaitu dengan melakukan dobel lot untuk membalas dendam kekalahan/kesalahannya sebelumnya. Hal ini sangat jauh berbeda dengan konsep martinangle yang sudah memperhitungkan di area mana mereka masuk dan batasan waktu yang telah ditentukan beserta ketentuan lainnya yang melandasi system martinangle tersebut.

Menurutku obatnya hanyalah pengalaman , dengan pengalaman demi pengalaman seorang trader akan paham dan tidak hanya mengerti sehingga secara bawah sadar pemahaman tersebut akan menjadi pengendali dalam bertradingnya. Sebab pengalaman adalah self hypnotis yang paling mujarab sehingga masuk dalam longterm periodik memory.

Namun ada teman yang mengatakan bahwa serakah itu wajib sebab dunia forex adalah seperti dunia pemancingan , sejauh kita mampu memproteksi diri kita maka sebaiknya serakah sebab forex meski 24 jam tapi kesempatan yang ada dibatasi oleh waktu!!!

Dan saya kira keserakahan dan ketakutan adalah hal yang jamak yang kita temui di pelbagai kesempatan dalam hidup ini , semua bergantung bagaimana kita menyikapinya.

Bagaimana menurut anda?

TD-Points and TD-Lines

TD-points and TD-lines

The meaning of a Trend Line is quite complex and though there can be only one valid trend line, the ways of forming it are numerous. Thomas Demark developed a method of how to objectively select two points to form a TD is the abbreviation of the author's name and surname). The method makes trend line technical analysis more objective, turnining it into a mechanical procedure.

First of all, Thomas Demark suggested that trend lines should be formed from right to left because the current price movement is much more important than the previous one. Thus the latest market data in the right side of the chart .

TD-points are points through which the trend line will be drawn. The trend lines are called TD-Lines.

Supply price pivot point is the bar whose top is higher than those of both the top of the previous and following bars. Bearish trend lines are drawn through the bars highs.

Bars with bottoms lower than those of both the previous and following bars are called demand price pivot points. Bullish trend lines are drawn through the bottoms of such bars.

To draw a trend line from right to left two consecutive TD-points should be found and a trend line should be drawn through them:

An example of how to form a TD-line

TD-point is true if:

• The demand price pivot point is lower than the close two bars before it.
• The supply price pivot point is higher than the close two bars before it.
• For the demand price pivot point, the next bar close is higher than the TD-Line rate of advance.
• For the supply price pivot point, the next bar close is lower than the TD-Line rate of recede.

These criteria decrease the overall number of TD-points and TD-lines, but greatly improve their reliability.

Highs and Lows found without the aforementioned criteria are called Chart Highs and Lows. Highs and Lows found by these criteria are called True Highs and Lows.

TD-LINES OF A HIGHER MAGNITUDE

The TD-lines described above are TD-lines of Level 1 magnitude, i.e to define each TD-point three bars are needed.

First level TD-lines are short-term. To analyze a long-term perspective of price behavior TD-Lines of Level 2, 3 etc. magnitude are used.

TD-Lines of Level 2 magnitude are drawn through TD-Points using 5 bars: the supply price pivot point should be surrounded from each side by two lower bottoms and the demand price pivot point should be surrounded from each side by two higher tops.

So, to form a Level 3 magnitude TD-line , each TD-Point requires 7 bars and so on.

All TD-points of a higher magnitude level are also TD-points of a lower magnitude level, but not all of them are active points of the first level, as only the two last TD-points of the lower level are active.

TD-Lines of a higher magnitude level have the same logic as TD-lines of the first level, but Thomas Demark recommended to use only Level 1 TD-lines because:

• TD-lines of a higher magnitude have a greater probability of breaking the trend line before the last TD-point is formed, and so a good opportunity is lost;
• TD-lines of a higher magnitude have a greater probability of enabling the opposite signal (from TD-line of a lower level) before the price target is achieved.

source : www.alpari.com

TD Breakout Qualifiers

Once TD-lines have been broken, a trader needs to define if the price breakout is true. Thomas Demark suggested TD Breakout Qualifiers:

* The first TD Breakout qualifier. Downward breakout is considered true if the bar's close prior to the breakout is higher than the preceding bar's close:

* How to use the first TD Breakout Qualifier
Upward breakout is considered true if the bar's close prior to the breakout is lower than the preceding bar's close.

* The second TD Breakout qualifier.
Upward (downward) breakout is considered true if the bar's open, which is the breakout of the trendline, is higher (lower) than the descending (ascending) TD-Line:

*How to use the second TD Breakout Qualifier
As the second Qualifier is stronger than the first one, it is reasonable to open a position even if the first TD Qualifier indicates a false breakout.
* The third TD Breakout Qualifier.
Upward breakout is considered true if the sum of the bar's close before the breakout, and the difference between the close and low of the same bar (or close two bars before the breakout, if it is lower) is lower than the breakout price:


*How to use the third TD Breakout Qualifier
Downward breakout is considered true if the difference between the bar's close before the breakout, and the difference between the high (or the close two bars before the breakout if the latter is higher) and the close of the same bar is higher than the breakout price.

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source : www.alpari.com

TD-Price Projectors

When the TD Line breakout is identified as true, the next step is to set the breakout price targets, i.e. the levels which will be reached after the breakout.

There are three methods to set these price projections after a true trend line breakout:

• TD-Price Projector 1 is not very precise in comparison to other projectors, but it is simple to calculate. In the case of an upward breakout, TD-Price Projector 1 is calculated as follows: the range from the lowest price below the TD-line up to the price point on the TD-line immediately above is added to the price in the TD-Line breakout point. In the case of a downward breakout price projection 1 is calñulated as follows: the range from the highest price above the TD line up to the price on the TD line right below is subtracted from the price on the TD line breakout point.
• TD-Price Projector 2 is calculated in a similar manner but, instead of the highest (if it is the uptrend) or the lowest (if it is the downtrend) price, it is required to select the low (high) of the bar with the lowest (highest) close below (above) the TD-line. This value is then added to the upward breakout price or substracted from the downward breakout price. Often TD-Price Projector 1 and TD-Price Projector 2 coincide.
• TD-Price Projector 3 is the most "conservative" of the three. In the case of a breakout of the descending TD-Line (ascending TD-Line) this projector is calculated as the difference (sum) between the TD-Line and the close of the bar with the lowest (the highest) price below (above) the TD-Line.

Once the trend line has been broken, Demark price projectors indicate the direction of the price movements:

Demark price projectors give the price movement guidelines once the trend line has been broken

Sometimes price projections fail. Usually this happens in the following cases:

• As the result of the opposite TD-line breakout, a new contradicting signal appears. In this case the previous signal is replaced by a new one and price projections has to be ignored; or
• The TD-Line breakout signal turns out to be false. Usually this becomes clear once the bar after the breakout closes lower (higher) than the ascending (descending) TD-Line, which has been broken.

source : www.alpari.com

DeMarker Indicator

First step in the calculation of DeMax ( i ) is to define on the basis of the following correlations:

• If the current bar's high is above the previous bar's high, and then record the difference.
• If the current bar's high is at the same level or below the previous bar's high, and then assign a zero value.

If HIGH ( i ) > HIGH ( i - 1 ),
then DeMax ( i ) = HIGH ( i ) - HIGH ( i -1 ),
else DeMax ( i ) = 0.

The second step in the calculation of DeMax ( i ) is to define on the basis of the following correlations:

• If the current bar's low is below the preceding bar's low, and then record the difference.
• If the current bar's low is at the same level or above the previous bar's low, then assign a zero value.

If LOW ( i ) <>

DeMarker Indicator value is calculated:

DeMark ( i ) = SMA ( DeMax, N ) / ( SMA ( DeMax, N ) + SMA ( DeMin, N ) )

Where:

• HIGH ( i ) -current bar's high;
• LOW ( i ) - current bar's low;
• HIGH ( i - 1 ) - preceding bar's high;
• LOW ( i - 1 ) - preceding bar's low;
• SMA - simple moving average;
• N - the number of periods used for calculations.

DeMarker Indicator flactuates within the range between 0 and 1:

• The overbought area is where the indicator's value is between 0.7 and 1; and
• The oversold area is where the indicator's values is between 0 and 0.3.

DeMarker Indicator signals:

* Bullish divergence / bearish convergence is the main signal that the prevailing trend is weak:

• An example of a bearish convergence in accordance with Demark indicator.

• In a flat market, an exit from the overbought (oversold) area is the signal to sell (buy).

In order to add the Demarker Indicator to the chart in MetaTrader 4 use the "Insert -> Indicators -> Oscillators -> DeMarker" menu sequence.

source : www.alpari.com

Overbought / Oversold

Tomas DeMark defined two overbought / oversold conditions:

• Extremal overbought / oversold condition occurs when the oscillator is for more than 5 bars in the overbought / oversold area.
• Moderate overbought / oversold condition occurs when the oscillator is in the overbought / oversold area for less than 5 bars.

If the indicator exits the moderate overbought / oversold area, then reversal may occur.

Whereas it exits the moderate overbought / oversold area after it has been in the extremal overbought / oversold area, this does not generally mean trend reversal. As a general rule, before the reversal, the indicator must penetrate this area again and, fixing the moderate overbought (oversold) conditions, exit the area. Only after this may trend reversal occur.

source : www.alpari.com

Sequential

Sequential is a mechanical trading system developed by Thomas Demark. It consists of several stages:

• Setup;
• Requisite filter (Intersection);
• Countdown;
• Entry into the market;
• Position closing (exit).

Setup

Buy or Sold Setup is considered to be formed if within at least 9 consecutive bars, the closing prices are lower (higher) than the closing prices four bars preceding each bar of this sequence. There must be no less than nine bars in the setup.

Requisite filter (Intersection)

Intersection is designed to filter-out false setups. To confirm a buy (sell) setup the high (low) of bar 8 or 9 must be higher (lower) or at the same level as the low (high) of bars 3,4,5,6 or 7. If there is no intesection on bar 8 or 9, then the countdown stage is delayed untill it happens.

The setup is cancelled in the following cases:

• If "looping" (will be described later) occurs.
• If one of the following closing prices is higher than the highest daily top in the case of the Buy Setup; or less than the lowest daily bottom in the case of the Sell Setup.

Countdown

The countdown begins once the setup intersection has occured (but not earlier than bar 9 for this Setup). For the Sell (Buy) Setup the countdown reveals the correlation between the closing price and the high (low) price two bars before. The closing price should be higher (lower) than the high (low) price two bars before. Once thirteen prices have been fixed (not necessarily sequential) the signal appears.

The countdown stage cannot be completed before twelve bars appear following the setup stage (the ninth bar is supposed to be on the countdown stage), but generally, it takes approximately 15-30 bars.

The countdown and the setup are cancelled in the following cases:

• If another opposite setup has been formed.
• In case of "looping" (if another setup in the same direction is formed).

Enter the market

There are three methods of opening a position:

• At the close of the bar which ended the countdown. This is the most risky method because there is a great chance of "looping".
• Following the flip: in order to buy (sell) the closing price should be higher (lower) than the closing price four bars before.
• Following two-bars flip: in order to buy (sell) the closing price should be higher (lower) than the closing price two bars before.

The third method is a compromise between the first and the second method.

Exit from the market

To determine the Stop Loss levels, Thomas Demark used a range of the day with the lowest (the highest) price over the whole setup period and the Buy (Sell) signal countdown.

There are two methods to define the range:

• The bar's low is subtracted from the bar's high or from the previous bar's close if it is higher. In the case of the Buy (Sell) signal the Stop Loss level is calculated by subtraction (adding) of this value from the bar's low (to the bar's high).
• The second method is more "conservative". The bar for the Stop Loss level is chosen in a similar way. For the Buy position however, the Stop Loss level is calculated by subtracting the difference between the close and the low prices from the bar's low. For the Sell position the Stop Loss level is calculated by adding the high price and the difference between the high and the close.
• It is very important to define levels at which to fix profit in case of flavourable price behaviour. There are two ways to close a position with profit:
• If a new Setup stage has been finished and the price could not reach the highest/lowest price level registered during nearest inactive setup.
• If there is a reversal signal.

Sequential is effective not only on daily charts but Thomas Demark recommended it only for this period.

source : www.alpari.com

Daily Range Projections

Price movements during the next trading session depend on the correlation between the current closing and opening levels:

• if close < x =" (">
• if close > open, then X = ( H + L + C + H ) / 2;
• if close = open, then X = ( H + L + C + C ) / 2.

The forecasted high for the next trading session is:

H₊₁ = X – L

and expected low is:

L₊₁ = X – H.

If the next trading session opens within the predicted price range, then it is expected that the resistance level will be at the predicted high and the support level will be at the predicted low. If the open price is not within the predicted range then:

• Ignore the price range forecasted before.
• Correct the range by shifting the calculated low (high) a bit lower (higher) than the predicted high (low) if the market opens higher (lower).

source : www.alpari.com

Supply and Demand

Prices of goods, commodities and exchange rates are determined on open markets under the control of two forces, supply and demand.

The laws of supply and demand show that:

• High supply causes low prices, and high demand causes high prices.
• When there is an abundant supply of a given commodity then the price should fall.
• When there is a scarce supply of a given commodity then the price should increase.
• Therefore, an increase in the demand for a commodity would cause it to appreciate in value, whereas an increase in supply would cause it to depreciate.

The value of a nation’s currency, under a floating exchange rate, is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. We will work through some charts and an example to show how these forces work, from a theoretical point of view.

Demand Curve

Figure 1 shows the demand for British pounds in the United States. The curve is a normal downward sloping demand curve, indicating that as the pound depreciates relative to the dollar, the quantity of pounds demanded by Americans increases. Note that we are measuring the price of the pound-the exchange rate-on the vertical axis. Since it is dollars per pound ($/£), it is the price of a pound in terms of dollars and an increase in the exchange rate, R, is a decline in the value of the dollar. In other words, movements up the vertical axis represent an increase in price of the pound, which is equivalent to a fall in the price of the dollar. Similarly, movements down the vertical axis represent a decrease in the price of the pound.

For Americans, British goods are less expensive when the pound is cheaper and the dollar is stronger. At depreciated values for the pound, Americans will switch from American-made or third-party suppliers of goods and services to British suppliers. Before they can purchase goods made in Britain, they must exchange dollars for British pounds. Consequently, the increased demand for British goods is simultaneously an increase in the quantity of British pounds demanded.

Supply Curve



Figure 2 shows the supply side of the picture. The supply curve slopes up because British firms and consumers are willing to buy a greater quantity of American goods as the dollar becomes cheaper (i.e. they receive more dollars per pound). Before British customers can buy American goods, however, they must first convert pounds into dollars, so the increase in the quantity of American goods demanded is simultaneously an increase in the quantity of foreign currency supplied to the United States.

Equilibrium Price

Suppliers and consumers meet at a particular quantity and price at which they are both satisfied. Figure 3 combines the supply and demand curves. The intersection determines the market exchange rate and the quantity of dollars supplied to United States. At the exchange rate R, the demand and supply of British pounds to the United States is Q.

This is known as the equilibrium or the market’s clearing point.

Changes in Demand and Supply

In figure 4, an increase in the US demand for the pound (rightward shift of the demand curve) causes a rise in the exchange rate, an appreciation in the pound, and a depreciation in the dollar. Conversely, a fall in demand would shift the demand curve left and lead to a falling pound and rising dollar. On the supply side, an increase in the supply of pounds to the US market (supply curve shifts right) is illustrated in Figure 5, where a new intersection for supply and demand occurs at a lower exchange rate and an appreciated dollar. A decrease in the supply of pounds shifts the curve leftward, causing the exchange rate to rise and the dollar to depreciate.

When the forces between supply and demand change, the market moves in ways to clear itself through a change in price.

In international finance markets, if many investors are selling a particular currency, they are making it more readily available and increasing its supply. If there is not an equal amount of buyers, or demand, for that currency, its price will go down in order to strike a new balance between supply and demand.

The direction in which the value of a currency is heading can cause cash to flow into or out of that currency. A currency that is appreciating can cause money to flow into its country’s assets as investors and Forex traders want to benefit from buying or taking “long” positions on the currency as the currency’s price rises.

There are many players that affect supply and demand for foreign currency exchange. Lets meet them.

source : http://www.cmsfx.com

Trend adalah subjektif

Trend is your friends....
Tentu anda seringkali mendengar hal ini namun sadarkah kita bahwa trend adalah subjektif?? Apa yang kita lihat merupakan sebuah trend di TF tertentu belum tentu merupakan sebuah trend di time frame yang lain. Hal-hal seperti inilah yang menurutku membuat pentingnya sebuah integrate penganalisaan sebuah kondisi market setiap saat dan senantiasa harus mawas diri jika diri kita secara tidak sadar telah terpola oleh system trading tertentu yang memaksa pikiran kita menyatu dalam sebuah time frame tertentu sehingga seringkali bias dan menjadi bug dari system trading tersebut.

Secara umum pergerakan harga di kenal dalam 3 bentuk ;
1. Uptrend



2. Downtrend



3. Sideway/channel




Setiap time frame memiliki power ( power of time frame ) dan ini saya kira menjadi bagian terpenting dalam menganalisa sebuah kekuatan trend sebab price cycle terjadi di setiap time frame dan itu artinya bahwa sebuah kekuatan time frame tertentu sangat ditentukan oleh kekuatan time frame dibawahnya dan cyclus yang terjadi di dalam time frame tersebut.

Kenapa kekuatan trend sangat terikat dengan price cycle?
Karena price cycle terjadi di setiap time frame meski seringkali tidak terlihat secara jelas dibandingkan di time frame tertentu namun hal ini merupakan sebuah ketetapan hukum pergerakan harga dan ini menjadi sangat penting ketika kita mencoba mengukur kekuatan trends selain dengan mengandalkan habit yang telah terjadi.

Pengkolaborasian penganalisaan antar time frame , habit kekuatan trend , chart pattern , pola price cycle dan mungkin signal dari sebuah atau lebih indikator adalah sebuah seni. Dan kita bisa membuang semua itu begitu saja dengan trailing stop ... but trade is art dan disinilah keasyikan trading forex bagiku, kita bisa melihat dari mana saja dan dengan apa saja hanya saja siapa yang lebih baik tentu akan berpeluang lebih menang di pertempuran didunia trading.

Selamat bertrading

Dunia forex yang kompleks.... ( menyesal aku mengenalnya )

Forex , jika anda melihat secara sederhana maka akan terlihat sederhana namun jika anda lebih mendalam lagi maka akan terlihat ribuan kerumitannya... . Mungkin benar kata senior trader bahwa kunci forex adalah belajar dan belajar sebab dunia forex ini seakan-akan tidak ada batasannya dan atau jangan-jangan yang kasih saran " belajar dan belajar" juga gak tahu batasan sampai dimana seorang trader harus belajar.

Atau mungkin cukup kita batasi di sejauh kita telah menemukan suatu system trading yang profitable? tapi... bukankah hampir semua system trading yang bertebaran di net adalah memiliki probabilitas profit yang tinggi sedangkan masalah intinya justru diri sang trader sendiri???
Ntar ujung-ujungnya belajar diri sendiri , trus nyangkut ke meditasi , trus punya ilmu spiritual berteman ama jin...memiliki kesaktian ...terus...lho kok ngelantur sih!!!

Teknik analis sedemikian kompleks, apalagi fundamental.. harus deket-deket ama pengetahuan ekonomi terlebih ekonomi dunia....aduh...jadi pusing nih...

Semua itu seni dari forex , meski dunia forex sebegitu luas dan kompleks namun tetap saja kita dapat melihatnya meski dengan pandangan yang terbatas oleh kemampuan kita sebab pada dasarnya forex kembali ke diri kita sendiri mo beradaptasi dengannya seperti apa. "Market still out there" begitulah kira-kira petuah para senior untuk sekedar mengingatkan kita bahwa dunia forex tetap ada meskipun kita tidur makan bahkan pergi bertahun-tahun sekalipun kecuali ada kiamat...

Kompleksitas forex , pernah membuatku menyesal mengenal forex sebab seakan akan dia menyedot duniaku dan serta merta membuatku menghabiskan waktuku bergumul dengan dunia forex. Dan hingga kinipun aku tidak bisa terlepas darinya seakan-akan menjadi hoby baru yang memakan waktu tanpa aku sadari meski aku menyadari ternyata banyak teman-teman trader yang mengalami kondisi seperti ini dulu....
Terlebih forex memberikan peluang untuk menggapai cita-citaku... yang saya kira juga menjadi cita-cita hampir setiap orang.

Ayoo...terus belajar , terutama belajar disiplin dan konsisten.